Introduction: Terminal drag, supply and demand both decreased, PTA in December continued the accumulated inventory pattern since September, coupled with the poor macro atmosphere and reduced risk appetite, the center of gravity of market prices may shift downward.
Supply: Baihong 2.5 million tons, Zhuhai Ineos Chemical 1.1 million tons, Shanghai Yadong 750,000 tons all have routine maintenance, Honggang Petrochemical 2.5 million tons unexpected failure, Yishenglian 2.25 million tons have advance maintenance plan, Hengli Petrochemical The maintenance time of 5# is still unclear. It can be restarted with 1 million tons of investment, and the load of Fuhua Industry and Trade is 70%. According to the calculation of the restart and maintenance of domestic PTA equipment, the monthly supply of domestic PTA increased to 4.5084 million tons in December. The increase in monthly supply mainly comes from the increase in the number of days, and the daily accumulation is concentrated in the second half of this month.
Demand: dragged down by terminal orders, some polyester factories began to limit production in late November. Currently, expectations are still being lowered. The average monthly polyester load is expected to be around 82.5% in December. The monthly supply of polyester has increased to 4.74 million tons. Affected by the number of days, the average daily output in the month declined slightly.
Inventory: The average daily output of PTA decreased slightly in December, but terminal demand was a drag. The average daily output of downstream polyester is also expected to decrease. Both supply and demand decreased, and the demand reduction was relatively strong. In December, PTA accumulated 107,800 tons. At the end of the month Social inventories increased to 3.7443 million tons, continuing the accumulation pattern since September.
Market expectations: The PTA market price center of gravity fell month-on-month in December. The demand for polyester is expected to weaken. The mentality of traders and factories is not good. The basis structure remains weak and returns to normal. Polyester factories mainly require low-price procurement. PTA spot pressure is expected to increase in December, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull. Due to inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction is a foregone conclusion, many countries have released crude oil reserves, the Iranian nuclear negotiations have started smoothly, and mutated virus strains have affected the demand outlook. The market risk appetite has been significantly reduced, and crude oil and other bulk commodities have suffered across the board. Taking into account its own supply and demand and macro factors, the decline in crude oil has severely hit the cost of PTA, and the long-term accumulation of supply and demand contradictions in the industrial chain is expected to increase. The market processing range is good, and the hedging pressure is high, all of which restrict the upward trend of PTA. The 01 contract support reference is 4300- The first line is around 4350 yuan/ton, patiently waiting for the opportunity for the market to stabilize.
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