As the 2021/22 seed cotton harvest in China and the United States in the northern hemisphere comes to an end, more than half of Indian seed cotton has been sold, and cotton planting in Australia and Brazil in the southern hemisphere has accelerated in 2021, the focus of cotton traders, speculators, and cotton-using companies has begun to shift to 2022. Annual global cotton planting area, production forecast, supply and demand changes.
Obviously, the cotton planting area in major cotton-producing countries and cotton-producing areas may show a significant increase in 2021 and 2022, and some cotton areas are expected to have a “blowout”. If the weather is normal and the incidence of disasters is low, the global cotton supply and demand situation will reverse in 2022, and the probability of cotton prices rebounding will be under pressure and weak.
Judging from the current USDA and related reports, the following points can be summarized:
1. The expansion of cotton planting in major producing countries such as the United States, India, Pakistan, and Central Asia in 2022 is “certain”. According to foreign media reports, due to the high cotton prices and smooth contracted sales in 2021/22, U.S. farmers, international cotton merchants and others generally believe that the U.S. cotton planting area will resume growth in 2022. A forecast from a U.S. private institution states that in 2022, the U.S. cotton planting area will resume growth. The cotton planting area is 12.093 million acres, a year-on-year increase of 8%, while other industry insiders predict that US cotton planting will expand by 15-25%; India’s seed cotton purchase price has been significantly higher than MSP from September to November (Punjab seed cotton price was once 77% higher than MSP ), coupled with the expected increase in yields, cotton farmers’ income is significantly higher than other food crops, soybeans, peanuts, etc., farmers’ enthusiasm and confidence in cotton planting in 2022 have been fully mobilized.
2. Planting expansion in Australia and Brazil is “in progress”. High cotton prices + rapid exports have stimulated Australia’s cotton planting area to begin in full swing in September 2021, and there has been abundant rainfall in the main cotton-producing areas recently. USDA data shows that the cotton planting area in Australia in 2021/22 is expected to be 600,000 hectares, an increase of about 114% over the previous year, and the total output is about 1.15 million tons, an increase of about 89% year-on-year; while the 2021/2021/2021 increase in Mato Grosso, Brazil The cotton planting area in 2022 may increase by 13.3% year-on-year, and Brazil’s total cotton output is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year.
3. This year, the planting area of Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Senegal and other African countries has increased significantly year-on-year. The increase in unit yields and high cotton prices have stimulated most African cotton-producing areas to expand planting in 2022;
4. There is almost no doubt that China’s cotton planting area will resume growth in 2022. Not only is the income from cotton planting in Xinjiang cotton areas significantly higher than that of corn, wheat and other crops (coupled with factors such as the popularization of machine harvesting and shortage of irrigation water), the advantages of cotton planting in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in the mainland are also relatively obvious. Therefore, it is expected that in 2022, the national The cotton planting area is expected to rebound strongly, and the output is also worth looking forward to.
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