According to statistics, as of December 1, there were 4,852 Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and 2,070 valid forecasts. Although the number of warehouse receipts is still 2,533 fewer than the same period in 2020/21 (a decrease of 34.3%), it is worth noting that among the 2021/2021 Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts The number of new cotton warehouse receipts in 2022 reached 4,284, which was lower than 1,037 in the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 19.49%, and the proportion of warehouse receipts was significantly higher than that of the previous year.
Why is the decrease in the number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts not very prominent when the current cotton futures price is 1,200-2,000 yuan/ton since October? The author’s judgment is mainly due to the following reasons:
First, in mid-October, the market price of Zheng Cotton CF2201 contract exceeded 22,200 yuan/ton, and the intraday high reached 22,960 yuan/ton. For most cotton processing companies in Xinjiang, they no longer lose money when hedging above 22,500 yuan/ton, so there is a certain amount There is an influx of hedging orders, but the consolidation time in the 22,500-23,000 yuan/ton range is short. Cotton companies have just made large-scale acquisitions, and the amount of hedging is not very large.
Second, since late October, traders and futures companies have gradually started to purchase “fixed price” and basis purchases. Transactions are concentrated in high-index lint cotton such as “Double 29 and Double 30”. Therefore, hedging has also been continuously exerted, and some trade Merchants began to rush to ship Xinjiang cotton to mainland delivery warehouses.
Third, the gap between the cumulative processing volume and cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton in 2021/22 has narrowed significantly compared with the same period of the previous year. However, the transactions and shipments of Kupi cotton in Xinjiang have been very slow. Some cotton processing companies are increasingly worried about cotton overflow. , hedging operations increased.
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