The National Cotton Market Monitoring System launched a nationwide cotton production survey in 2021 from the end of October to early November. The samples involved 14 provinces (autonomous regions), 46 cotton-growing counties, and 1,700 designated cotton-planting information contact households. The survey results show that China’s average cotton yield in 2021 is 134.3 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; based on the actual sown area surveyed by the monitoring system of 43.191 million acres, the national total output is expected to be 5.801 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; of which Xinjiang’s output is expected to be 526.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Details are as follows:
This year, the weather conditions in Xinjiang’s cotton areas were generally suitable, and cotton grew well in the later period, which made up for the impact of extreme weather in the early stages, and cotton output increased steadily. The average cotton yield in Xinjiang in 2021 is expected to be 148.0 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which is the same as the August forecast; the expected output is 5.262 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the August forecast.
Heavy rains and floods have occurred frequently in the Yellow River Basin this year. Cotton buds have fallen off or become rotten, cotton wadding has been affected to a certain extent, and cotton quality and yield have declined. The average yield in the region is expected to be 72.6 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and the total output is expected to be 331,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%, both of which are 2.5 percentage points lower than the August forecast.
This year, the weather in the Yangtze River Basin is suitable, with sufficient sunshine and rainfall. Taking into account the low base effect caused by last year’s disaster weather, cotton yields have recovered and increased. Due to the reduction in cotton planting area, the total cotton output is still declining. The average cotton yield in the region is expected to be 63.6 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from the August forecast; the total output is expected to be 166,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from the August forecast.
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