Since November 25, Zheng cotton and ICE cotton prices have fallen hand in hand. Among them, Zheng cotton CF2205 contract fell below the key point of 19,000 yuan/ton. The intraday low once touched 18,735 yuan/ton, while ICE fell below 105 cents/ton. pound pass. Cotton textile mills and middlemen with replenishment needs have increased their inquiry and purchasing efforts for Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton in 2021/22. Traders’ basis price sales have been relatively active, and the proportion of hedging in Xinjiang is low or not at all. Some cotton processing companies are trying to raise prices, and shipments have fallen into a deserted or even stagnant state, while the basis has also quietly increased.
A medium-sized cotton trading company in Qingdao said that the current quotations for “Double 29” machine-picked cotton in the supervision warehouse in Xinjiang are concentrated at 21,750-22,050 yuan/ton, while the “Double 28” quotations are slightly lower by 100-200 yuan/ton. Due to the slightly different purchase prices of seed cotton from each ginner, as well as the impurity content and specific quality indicators, it is common for the “Double 29 and Double 28” quotations of the same level to differ by 200-300 yuan/ton. The comprehensive cost of lint cotton currently in storage is generally more than 22,500 yuan/ton (including short-term, warehousing, financial and other expenses). Cotton processing companies sell a batch at a loss. Calculated based on the current market transaction price, some cotton companies in northern Xinjiang The loss exceeds 1,000 yuan/ton, and selling while waiting for the price has become a routine operation of cotton companies.
Judging from the survey of cotton spinning enterprises in Shandong, Henan, Anhui and other places, the expectation of large-scale replenishment before the Spring Festival continues to weaken. The reasons are summarized as follows: First, in the past week or so, enterprises have purchased at bargain prices to solve the urgent need for raw materials; The second is that the overstocking of cotton yarn has continued to increase recently, and the cash flow of textile companies was tight in December, making it impossible to store large amounts of cotton and other raw materials. The third is that the number of orders received in the first quarter of 2022 is lower than expected, combined with the medium and long-term impact of the domestic and global new crown epidemic. ization, the export and domestic sales of textiles and clothing are hard to say optimistic; fourth, the problem of rising sea freight and “hard to get a ticket” for containers is fermenting again. Recently, shipping rates in Southeast Asia have continued to soar, with freight rates at almost all major ports in Southeast Asia nearly tripling within a month. The global epidemic has returned, and negative effects such as port congestion and ship shortages in the United States and Southeast Asian countries cannot subside in the short term, and there is little hope of short-term freight rate reductions.
</p
