Now the market is once again worried about the new super coronavirus variant, which will affect demand recovery, and prices across the entire industrial chain, including oil prices, have collapsed. As the new year approaches, the bearish atmosphere in the market is obvious, and the nylon industry chain is full of “green”.
Raw materials plummet + downstream demand drops
PA fell nearly 2,000 in June
PA6 has continued to fall, and the spot prices of various brands have been reduced. As of December 6, PA6 has dropped from 17,400 yuan/ton in October to 15,400 yuan/ton in December, with an average drop of nearly 2,000 yuan/ton in two months.
In early December, Baling Petrochemical’s caprolactam production was basically completed and production could resume. However, Luxi Chemical’s phase 2 caprolactam has a maintenance plan, but it is mostly for self-use and has little impact on the market. The overall supply of caprolactam this month is still loose and the price of pure benzene may be lowered in the first half of the month, which may make the caprolactam market weak due to lack of cost support.
Upstream caprolactam continues to operate weakly, raw material pure benzene is still in a downward channel, and slicing cost support is insufficient. In addition, the downstream market is light, terminal demand is weak, on-site transactions are not good, and buyers are waiting to wait and see, and the downward sentiment has intensified. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will still fall slightly in the short term, and the weak atmosphere will continue until around mid-December.
However, the good news is that there is news that Hualu Hengsheng’s caprolactam load has been halved recently. Supported by the tightening caprolactam supply, chip prices may stop falling and stabilize.
The collapse of the raw material end destroys downstream fabrics
Nisi spins to settle accounts after welcoming autumn
Of course, the collapse of the raw material end is also destroying downstream nylon fabrics. PA6 is the main raw material for nylon civilian yarn. As a raw material for nylon spinning, nylon also became popular in early October and kept rising. However, at the end of the month, as coal prices plummeted, bulk chemicals such as caprolactam followed suit. The price fell by nearly a thousand yuan in a few days, causing nylon to lose support from the cost side of raw materials and begin to decline. Entering November, nylon fabrics gradually began to collapse due to the impact of upstream raw material prices.
On the other hand, Fujian, as a major nylon spinning production province, was affected by the epidemic in early September, and its production capacity dropped sharply. At that time, it was in the peak production season of autumn and winter fabrics. For a time, the nylon spinning production capacity in the market was insufficient and supply was tight! Coupled with the power and production restrictions that started in late September, the already tense nylon gray fabrics have been even worse. According to the market supply and demand, the price of nylon gray fabrics has been raised at this point, and the price has almost doubled.
As the epidemic situation in Fujian improves and the power restriction policy is relaxed, the power-on rate has increased, the production capacity of nylon spinning has been restored, and the tight market supply has begun to ease. In addition, this winter has not yet reflected the cold and seasonal problems. It also greatly reduced the demand for Nisi spinning. According to market research, traders who had previously stocked up on goods have also taken action. The number of nylon fabrics on the market has increased significantly, and the price of nylon fabrics has begun to fall every day. Taking 380T nylon spinning as an example, it rose to 5.2 yuan/meter at its peak in October, but now it has dropped to less than 3.5 yuan/meter. Another cloth boss sold 380T nylon finished fabrics, and specifically stated that the cost was 5.5 yuan/meter, and now it is sold at 3.3 yuan/meter. Some textile netizens joked that those with a weak heart should never do nylon spinning. This is true.
The current decline in the price of Nisi spinning involves three factors: cost, supply, and demand. The supply and demand relationship is the main reason affecting its price. It is said that the price will follow the market. Only when the market is good can the price be improved. However, according to research, At present, the prices of gray fabrics in the market have almost all dropped to varying degrees. Although judging from the decline, the decline of conventional varieties is not much, and the raw materials have also declined, it seems that there is still room for profit. But the actual situation is not the same. Due to the large increase in the early stage, weaving manufacturers have returned to the “buy-up” mentality and stocked up a lot of raw materials in October when the raw materials first rose. So far, before the high-priced raw materials have been consumed, the price of gray fabrics has fallen, so profits have been greatly affected.
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