According to statistics, as of December 13, Zheng Cotton had 7,911 warehouse receipts and 1,922 valid forecasts. Although the total number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,619 compared with the same period, the number of new warehouse receipts and valid forecasts each day exceeded the same period last year. It is difficult to reverse the current inverted situation of cotton futures in the short term. Since the grade and quality indicators of Xinjiang cotton have improved significantly year-on-year this year, it may gradually become more difficult to sell new cotton before the Spring Festival. In addition, the pressure to repay loans in proportion will increase. It is expected that cotton processing enterprises will , traders’ enthusiasm for registering warehouse receipts is easy to increase but difficult to decrease.
Judging from the survey, the current comprehensive cost of cotton in Xinjiang warehouses in 2021/22 is generally more than 23,000 yuan/ton. However, since mid-December, the actual transaction price of “Double 29” machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang’s supervision warehouses is only 21,700-22,000 yuan/ton. tons (there are large differences due to different impurities and specific indicators), even if they can be successfully sold, cotton processing companies may lose more than 1,000 yuan/ton, so reluctance to sell and holding on are the current mentality of most Xinjiang ginners.
In the past month or so, the price of downstream cotton yarn has been significantly lower than that of cotton. Based on the current market 2021/22 new cotton transaction price, except for high-count yarns of 40S and above, which still have some profits or production and sales are flat, the profits of medium- and low-count cotton yarns are meager. Some small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills are even experiencing slight losses. They control the cost of raw material procurement below 20,000 yuan/ton, leaving little room for effective communication between buyers and sellers.
Why are domestic cotton spinning mills and middlemen not very enthusiastic about accepting Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts recently? The author believes that there are mainly four reasons: First, from the perspective of the composition of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts, there is a certain amount of 2021 old cotton warehouse receipts in Xinjiang’s domestic and foreign delivery warehouses. Textile enterprises are worried that Zheng cotton’s delivery in January will be paired with old cotton warehouse receipts, which is inconsistent with the actual demand for spinning. The delivery period of the May contract is relatively long, and the market conditions may fluctuate greatly; secondly, since November, the number of real estate cotton registrations and warehouse receipts generated for 2021/22 has increased significantly, and textile companies are worried about matching real estate with average quality. cotton; third, cotton textile companies generally have tight cash flow in December and January, and need to pay various expenses, which has delayed replenishment operations; fourth, the epidemic has also broken out in some areas of our country, and orders from Europe, the United States and other countries are rapidly returning to Southeast Asian countries. , so cotton spinning enterprises lack confidence in large-scale restocking and stockpiling of raw materials.
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