International oil prices rose sharply overnight, and the cost side boosted PTA bottoming out in late trading. On the 22nd, it once rose by more than 4% to close at 4,784 yuan, and short fiber rose by more than 2% at one time, closing at 6,816 yuan.
As European natural gas and electricity prices continue to soar sharply, the market is once again worried about the energy crisis in Europe. In addition, the United States and the United Kingdom have announced that they will not consider increasing epidemic prevention restrictions for Christmas, which has driven optimism in the demand for crude oil. U.S. oil is heavy Back above $70. The operation of the PX raw material PTA device is relatively stable, the spot circulation of PX is slightly loose, and the price follows the increase in crude oil prices.
In December, PTA supply was significantly reduced due to the unexpected maintenance of the equipment. After Fujian Baihong, Yadong Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 were shut down one after another, the load of Yisheng New Materials Device dropped due to the epidemic. Two 6-million-ton units in Dalian were briefly shut down. In addition, Zhuhai BP’s 1.1-million-ton unit was facing maintenance. In the short term, PTA supply and demand are likely to be destocked, which makes the basis stronger. The large number of warehouse receipts written off by the exchange yesterday seems to confirm this phenomenon.
However, the polyester end has been operating stably and slightly. Although some devices have resumed and restarted, some devices have stopped and reduced their load due to the impact of the epidemic. When the epidemic occurred, the overall load of polyester raw materials and products in Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Hangzhou was running smoothly, and only the PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced the load. From the data point of view, the epidemic has limited boost to PTA prices. The strengthening of PTA prices is more due to the impact of the epidemic on logistics and the market’s concerns about the epidemic. At the same time, the inquiry atmosphere in most textile markets at the end of the year is in a clear downward trend. As the end of the year approaches, considering that workers have not yet arrived for their holidays, most production companies maintain low production operations.
At present, the inventory of polyester filament is at a high level in the past five years. In addition, downstream companies are going on holiday ahead of schedule. Polyester filament will face greater sales and inventory pressure in the future. Although the inventory pressure of short fiber is minimal, due to sluggish demand from textile terminals and poor enthusiasm for downstream purchasing, some yarn mills in Hebei may limit production after entering January due to the approaching Winter Olympics, and the market lacks a clear upward driver.
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