According to the CFTC data report, as of December 17, the ON-CAll contracts for 2021/22 on the ICE cotton futures market totaled 122,183 unpriced contracts (approximately 2.77 million tons), of which 54,033 unpriced contracts on the 2203 contract were sold by the seller. Zhang (decreased by 1,982 Zhang), about 1.23 million tons.
From a statistical point of view, the total number of ON-CAll contracts in the past half month has only decreased by 1,017 (compared to December 10), a decrease of 0.83%, which is significantly lower than the expectations of institutions, cotton-related companies, etc., and buyers are under pressure to price. It will continue to be postponed and postponed to the first quarter of 2022.
An international cotton merchant said that ICE cotton futures have continued to oscillate and rebound in the past three trading days. The main contracts have successively opened 105 cents/pound, 108 cents/pound, 109 cents/pound and other integer levels, and 110 cents/pound will soon be closed. Forcibly breaking through, a large number of ON-CALL contract price transactions were once again forced to be postponed, and some contracts may face the risk of default or breach of contract.
Judging from feedback from some domestic cotton textile companies and traders, the main ICE cotton futures contract will fall back to 105 cents/pound or even below 100 cents/pound to arouse the enthusiasm of buyers to price in large quantities and fulfill the contract. Otherwise, the ICE market will be about The 2.77 million tons ON-CALL contract will become a “stumbling block” to the rebound of ICE in 2022; of course, the relative shortage of 1% tariff and sliding tariff cotton import quotas in the Chinese market since December is also an important factor for buyers to carefully price and purchase goods.
Some textile companies in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places said that as the Federal Reserve accelerates the exit from QE and an interest rate hike is imminent in 2022; the COVID-19 epidemic is making a comeback in Europe and the United States and other countries; and the cotton planting area in major cotton-producing countries in the northern hemisphere is expected to increase significantly in 2022, ICE’s main force The contract has the conditions and motivation to backtest 100 cents/pound. In addition, the 894,000 tons of 1% tariff cotton import quota for 2022 will be issued around mid-January as usual, so the number of ON-CALL contracts will decline rapidly and become an important means for Chinese buyers to purchase cotton and replenish raw materials.
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