The situation of the textile industry has basically become clear in the last month of this year. The epidemic situation has recurred in many places, especially in the south. Most textile companies are pessimistic about the market outlook. As the end of the year approaches, previous years’ preparations for post-holiday stocking seem to have come to nothing, and downstream demand has not improved; some areas in the south have suffered under the impact of the epidemic. , the startup rate continues to decline, and there is a continued downward trend. There are also some bosses who are still watching the market outlook, hoping that the clouds will clear and the moon will shine, and a golden market outlook will emerge. However, the strict control caused by the epidemic has made the market outlook even more gloomy. Now that the market is deserted and epidemics are recurring, there may be an increase in the trend of early holidays for downstream industries.
Cotton—The difference between cost and psychological price2000yuan
Last yearAfter the “National Day“, the experience of a sharp rise in cotton prices caused by the return of orders caused by the external epidemic, once This has led to greater exposure risks in downstream production and stocking, which has also led to ginning mills stocking up in advance this year and jumping into the market. The newly built processing plants and rising contract fees have made Xinjiang’s cotton processing plants have an increasingly serious problem of not having enough to eat. The commissioning of many ginneries corresponds to the huge production capacity, which has led to the rush to harvest new cotton from expectations to reality, coupled with the increase in planting costs. Cotton prices have been rising step by step, much earlier than the same period last year. This has become the dominant factor in the cotton and cotton yarn market trends in the past two months. Behind the rush to harvest is 1000 There is a serious mismatch between more than 10,000 tons of seed cotton and 2000 more than 10,000 tons of ginning capacity. The sales pace of high-cost cotton and the risks in the middle and lower reaches of the market will all increase.
At present, under the situation of high costs and weak demand, the purchase and sale of cotton spot market are broken. Upstream and downstream companies hold different opinions, and the market has entered a stalemate stage. This situation may remain for some time. The high processing costs of ginning enterprises have solidified, and the gap with the current market price is too large, which not only causes manufacturers to face widespread losses, but also discourages downstream markets.
According to feedback from many cotton manufacturers, 2021The annual lint production cost will be 23,000yuan/tons, but the current price of raw materials acceptable to spinning enterprises is mostly 21000-21500yuan/ Ton range. In previous years, most production companies were able to successfully unwind their spot inventories after futures prices gave him hedging opportunities. However, this year’s spot market was severely fragmented, causing ginning companies to lose shipping opportunities. Moreover, the Zheng cotton contract was strong in the near future and weak in the far range. This makes cotton enterprises feel that there is little hope.
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However, high inflation expectations next year will limit the implementation of active fiscal policies in the United States. After the subsidy measures expire, the growth rate will slow down. There is a possibility of peaking and falling next year. It will be beneficial to the recovery of the cotton textile industry next year.
Influence downstream mentality
The epidemic in many places in China has affected the downstream mentality. As the end of the year approaches, traders are selling to withdraw funds and have a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. Recently, the spot price of cotton yarn has dropped by 200-500yuan/ton, but spot transactions are still weak, and cotton yarn inventories of textile companies continue to accumulate.
Enterprise holidays are brought forward and holidays are extended
Enterprises in the north and south have their holidays brought forward and their holidays extended. It is understood that it has been very difficult for cotton companies to sell recently. Cotton inventory has remained at 1 months, while cotton yarn inventory has remained at 2 months. higher than the same period in previous years. In order to control risks under the conditions of difficult sales and bulging product inventories, companies have suspended raw material procurement and reduced capital occupation. Some companies plan to arrange holidays at the end of this month. In previous years, the holiday period was at most half a month during the Double Festival. This year, the holiday period is expected to be about two months.
With the unexpected outbreak of the Omicron epidemic again, the time and space for the global textile market to fully recover has once again been delayed and compressed. On December 22, Zhejiang Province held its 96th new coronavirus epidemic prevention and control meeting. At the press conference on control work, it was reported at the meeting that Shangyu District of Shaoxing City has achieved the goal of clearing the community, and the epidemics in Hangzhou and Ningbo have entered the clearing stage, and the risk of spread of this round of epidemic has basically been controlled. The epidemic in Zhejiang Province has entered the final stage, which has also given a boost to the recovery of the market.
In the short term, given the weakening domestic and foreign market demand, it is difficult for the textile market to recover significantly before the Spring Festival; after the Spring Festival, as companies’ efforts to stock up before the year have significantly weakened, the domestic textile market demand has declined. Recovery has conditions to look forward to. In the long run, it is only a matter of time before the global epidemic is resolved next year, and the long-term trend of the international textile market is still good.
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