Zheng Mian continued to fluctuate in a small range without market surprises. Among them, the CF2205 contract gradually reached the 20,000 mark, and the trend of sideways operation in the range became more obvious. Commodity prices have fluctuated sharply recently, but cotton has remained firmly on the fishing boat, with futures prices rising steadily and slightly, causing the futures-to-cash price difference to continue to decrease.
As delivery approaches, the price of Zheng cotton gradually returns to the spot price, indicating that the spot market is strong and has not been disturbed and affected by the current pessimistic market consumption. The author has discussed before that the game between ginning companies and textile companies will become stronger and stronger in the future. As we all know, the sales progress of new flowers this year is significantly slower than that of the same period in previous years. The reasons will not be repeated in detail. In the future, it needs to be considered. If ginning companies insist on selling at high prices, how should downstream textile companies purchase? Although the market is now well supplied, as consumption continues, this problem will definitely be encountered in the future.
According to the author’s understanding, the processing costs of Xinjiang ginning enterprises this year are generally more than 23,000 yuan/ton. Although the later processing costs have declined, the overall cost is still at a historically high level. At least at this stage, it is impossible for enterprises to sell at a price lower than the cost. New cotton. Not only will private companies not sell at a loss, but state-owned companies will also not make money at a loss. This year Xinjiang’s cotton output reached more than 5 million tons, and new cotton sales were less than 1 million tons, which means that more than 4 million tons of new cotton resources are concentrated in processing enterprises. According to statistics from the November monthly report of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, in 2021/22, domestic cotton consumption was 8.24 million tons, with an average consumption of nearly 690,000 tons in one month and nearly 1.4 million tons in two months. At this consumption rate, it is worth paying attention to whether there will be any changes in the Zheng Mian CF2205 contract.
The current market consumption is not optimistic, and it is difficult to judge whether consumption will pick up in the future. After all, it is now the textile off-season, and all companies are planning to arrange the “double festival” holiday. Once the peak consumption season enters next year, whether domestic sales and external demand will develop at the same time requires further market research. to verify. The game between the two sides will continue to see who can persist until the final victory. Let us wait patiently for the moment when the mystery is revealed. Therefore, when the two sides are in a stalemate, cotton prices will most likely continue to fluctuate.
</p
