Drewry said that with the recent rapid spread of Omicron, the risk of supply chain disruptions and market fluctuations will remain high in 2022, and the scenario that occurred in the past year seems likely to repeat itself in 2022.
As a result, they expect longer turnaround times and further congestion at ports and terminals, and advise cargo owners to prepare for more delays and continued high shipping costs.
Maersk: 40-foot containers will be in short supply in first quarter of 2022
Due to delays in shipping schedules, shipping capacity will continue to be limited, and Maersk expects that shipping space will remain tight throughout the Lunar New Year period.
It is expected that 40-foot containers will be in short supply, but there will be a surplus of 20-foot containers, especially in Greater China. There will still be a shortage of containers in some areas before the Lunar New Year.
As demand remains strong and there is a large backlog of orders, Maersk expects the export market to remain saturated.
Delays in shipping schedules will result in reduced shipping capacity, so space will be even tighter during the Lunar New Year. Overall import demand is expected to remain at broadly comparable levels.
Suspension of sailings and port hopping before the Spring Festival, shortage of space, and interruption of transportation capacity are common.
Of a total of 545 scheduled sailings on major routes such as trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean, 58 sailings were canceled between week 52 and week 3 next year, a cancellation rate of 11%.
According to Drewry data for this issue, during this period, 66% of blank sailings will occur on the eastbound trans-Pacific trade route, mainly to the West Coast of the United States.
According to the data compiled by Easy Shipping Schedule as of December 21, from December 2021 to January 2022 (that is, the first port departure is in the 48th to 4th weeks in total, within 9 weeks), a total of Asia to North America/Europe routes will be suspended. 219 voyages, including:
150 voyages to the Western United States;
31 voyages to the East United States;
19 voyages to Northern Europe;
19 voyages in the Mediterranean.
From the perspective of alliances, THE Alliance has 67 voyages, the Ocean Alliance has 33 voyages, the 2M Alliance has 38 voyages, and other independent routes have 81 voyages.
The overall number of canceled sailings this year is higher than last year. Compared with the same period last year, the number of canceled sailings has also doubled.
Due to the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year holiday (February 1-7), some barge services in southern China will be suspended. It is expected that freight demand will remain very strong and freight volume will remain at a high level from now until the Lunar New Year in 2022. .
However, the occasional COVID-19 epidemic may still have a certain impact on customers’ supply chains.
Ship delays and empty sailings on routes from Asia to North America continue. It is expected that export shipping schedules in January will face more severe challenges, and space on the entire US route continues to be tight;
Market demand and shipping space are still in a serious imbalance between supply and demand. It is expected that this situation will be further worsened by the arrival of the shipment peak on the eve of the Spring Festival, and market freight rates are expected to usher in another wave of increases.
At the same time, Europe is facing the attack of the new coronavirus strain Omicron, and European countries continue to strengthen control measures. The market demand for the transportation of various materials continues to remain high; and transportation capacity interruptions will still affect overall transportation capacity.
Capacity disruptions will remain common at least until the Lunar New Year.
The situation of empty sailings/jumping ports of large ships continues, and space/empty containers are in a state of tension before the Spring Festival; European port congestion has also intensified; market demand is stable. The recent domestic epidemic has had an impact on overall cargo shipments, and it is expected that in January 2022 There will be a wave of shipment peak before the Spring Festival.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) shows that market freight rates will remain high.
The situation of empty flights/port hopping on the China-Mediterranean route continues, market demand gradually increases, the overall space situation is tight in the second half of the month, and the freight rate rises slightly in the last week of December.
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