At present, the annual production scale of leading domestic polyester companies represented by Hengyi, Tongkun and Xinfengming is very impressive. In 2021, Hengyi, Xinfengming and Tongkun’s new polyester production capacity will be 1.4 million tons/year, 1.2 million tons/year and 300,000 tons/year respectively, accounting for more than two-thirds of domestic new polyester production capacity level. The concentration of the polyester industry has further increased.
It is understood that the supply of polyester filament will continue to increase during the year. The polyester production capacity during the year will be 4.1 million tons/year, of which 2.67 million tons/year of polyester filament, accounting for 65.12%, and the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity will be 8.21%. Specifically, the production capacity deployment is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. However, affected by the national dual control policy from August to October 2021, there will be a blank period in the polyester filament production capacity launch, and the growth rate of supply will slow down. However, the total supply is still increasing.
In this industry competition, polyester filament has always been a battleground for military strategists. Tongkun Co., Ltd., known as the “Wal-Mart among polyester filament companies”, has ranked first in filament production capacity all year round. Looking at 2021 The company has been growing at such a rapid rate this year, and it seems difficult to give up! In the near future, we will expand our filament production capacity. Recently, Tongkun was jointly established with Fujian Fuhua Gulei Petrochemical. The company plans to invest in Gulei project with an annual output of 2.4 million tons of new intelligent functional fibers and 200,000 tons of DTY differentiated fiber, with a total investment of over 10 billion yuan.
The four major leaders are expected to occupy 80% of production capacity
Commencement of production by leading companies in 2022
Or it may come more violently!
In 2022, the start-up of production by these leading companies may be even more intense. According to statistics, the domestic new polyester filament production capacity is more than 5 million tons. Considering that the current national dual-control policy and the epidemic and other factors will affect the progress of production capacity, it is expected that The actual effective production capacity in 2022 will be around 2.5-3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of around 7.8%.
As shown in the table above, the current new production capacity is concentrated in leading manufacturers such as Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi, etc. The current polyester filament CR4 industry concentration rate is 60%. In the next 2-3 years, polyester filament CR4 It is expected to further increase to around 80%.
High concentration brings high bargaining power for FDY/POY/DTY
Oversupply will still be a big problem in the future
With the expansion of the second phase project of the leading refining and chemical enterprise, the raw material cost advantage of the leading enterprise will continue to be enlarged. Coupled with the cost advantage brought by scale, the polyester filament industry has established high industry barriers and will become increasingly Hard to shake. According to the analysis of the Sinolink Securities team, the cost advantages of different polyester filaments of leading refining and chemical companies are also reflected in the following aspects:
POY: Companies that also produce POY filament can differ by about 100-200 yuan/ton in terms of scale, efficiency, and equipment energy consumption.
FDY: Considering that a lot of compressed air is used in the FDY process, the compressed air unit can be driven by a steam turbine or an electric motor, so energy consumption is the main cost. If the air pressure does not use electricity or the factory has its own power plant, it can be saved. The cost is 150-250 yuan/ton.
DTY: Compared with enterprises that integrate POY-DTY links, companies that purchase POY for the texturing process, because their power consumption and packaging account for about 40% of the non-raw material cost of DTY processing, through supporting public engineering systems (self-prepared Power plant/steam) and self-produced packaging materials (including paper tubes, foam boards, cartons, wooden frame recycling, etc.) can save costs by about 150-250 yuan/ton. The efficiency difference between old and new texturing equipment, including vehicle speed, power consumption, single machine efficiency, etc. can save costs by 150-1,000 yuan/ton depending on the type of filament.
At the same time, high concentration brings high bargaining power. Compared with downstream textile companies with obvious decentralization characteristics, the high concentration of filament companies allows them to take more effective measures to protect their own interests.
Leading companies continue to release new production capacity, industry concentration will further increase, industrial chain supporting facilities will be more complete, and the supply of differentiated polyester filament will steadily increase. At the same time, the growth rate of downstream demand may slow down, and oversupply will still be a problem in the future. Big problem.
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