According to Shenghong Group’s official WeChat account, on December 29, 2021, Shenghong Group’s Sirbon Petrochemical Phase II propane industry chain project received another good news. The 260,000 tons/year acrylonitrile (III) unit was successfully started and put into production at one time. Produce qualified products.
Acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 1.04 million tons
The project adopts the world’s leading propane dehydrogenation process, with a propylene production capacity of 700,000 tons/year, and plans to build two sets of 260,000 tons/year acrylonitrile units, two sets of 90,000 tons/year MMA units and a set of 21 The 10,000-ton/year SAR (spent acid regeneration) device can achieve efficient internal conversion of materials and a green and low-carbon cycle, and will form good industrial synergy with the first phase of the alcohol-based polygeneration project of Sierbon.
The project started construction in March 2020 and will be promoted in phases:
In the first phase, we will build a 700,000-ton/year propane dehydrogenation unit, a 260,000-ton/year acrylonitrile unit, and a 90,000-ton/year MMA unit and other main production units and ancillary supporting facilities;
In the second phase, the main production equipment and ancillary supporting facilities such as a 260,000-ton/year acrylonitrile unit, a 90,000-ton/year MMA unit, and a 210,000-ton/year SAR unit will be constructed.
Since the first unit was put into operation in 2016, Sierbon, as the core supplier of the domestic acrylonitrile industry, currently guarantees the supply of more than 50% of raw materials for my country’s carbon fiber production enterprises. Currently, Sierbon’s acrylonitrile production capacity reaches 780,000 tons/year, ranking first in the country and third in the world. It has reduced the import rate by 25% and plays an important role in promoting the development of clean energy such as wind power.
After the propane industry chain project is fully put into operation, Sierbon Petrochemical’s propylene production process route will be further enriched, and the overall acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 1.04 million tons/year, becoming one of Shenghong Group’s “three million-ton industrial projects” planned The first fully implemented project will be of great significance in promoting the subsequent “chain-extended” development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, electronic chemistry, and biotechnology, and helping to achieve the “double carbon” goal.
3.54 million tons! Private sector will account for 50%
Acrylonitrile is an important raw material for the country’s development of new materials industry and is mainly used to produce carbon fiber, ABS resin/plastic, nitrile rubber, acrylic fiber, etc.
In recent years, the development of acrylonitrile in China has been relatively stable. China’s acrylonitrile production plants are mainly located in Northeast and East China, while there is only one Lanzhou Petrochemical unit in the northwest. In the past, acrylonitrile factories were basically owned by Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation. These acrylonitrile production enterprises were reasonably designed, and their upstream and downstream integrated devices (propylene-acrylonitrile-acrylic fiber, ABS, etc.) facilitated the procurement of raw materials, production and transportation of products. Come for convenience. However, with the rise of the integrated refining and chemical industry, private acrylonitrile factories have gradually increased.
Image source: Find Plastic
Judging from the follow-up new production capacity investment plans in 2021, Lihuayi’s 260,000 tons and Tianchen Qixiang’s 130,000 tons are both located in Shandong Province, and Jiangsu Sirbon Phase III’s 260,000 tons are located in Jiangsu Province. In addition, among the production capacity that has been put into operation and is planned to be put into operation in 2021, except for the second phase of Shandong Korul, all belong to private enterprises. If all plans under construction in 2021 are put into operation, the proportion of production capacity of private enterprises will reach more than 50%. The share of production capacity of state-owned enterprises has gradually shrunk, and the marketization of the acrylonitrile industry is expected to continue to increase.
ABS is still the main growth point of demand
Acrylonitrile is mainly used to produce products such as ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide. In the future, ABS will remain the main growth point supporting demand for acrylonitrile.
The production capacity of another major downstream acrylic fiber has not increased in recent years. The industry lacks high value-added and differentiated products and has been greatly affected by the impact of polyester, viscose and other products. In recent years, other downstream aspects of acrylonitrile have gradually attracted attention. In terms of carbon fiber, in January 2021, Shanghai Petrochemical started construction of 12,000 tons/year 48K large tow carbon fiber, and Jinggong Technology completed the localization of the first 1,000-ton carbon fiber production line, which indicates that the domestic carbon fiber industry is gradually maturing and is expected to become a new downstream player in acrylonitrile. dark horse. At the same time, the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has caused a surge in demand for medical gloves, and the nitrile latex industry has also developed greatly. However, due to the small overall production capacity, the overall contribution to the demand for acrylonitrile is not significant.
Demand support is not strong
Judging from the capacity expansion of the main downstream acrylonitrile in 2021, so far, among the three major downstream companies, only ABS has added 450,000 tons of new production capacity in Zhangzhou Chimei, and the growth in consumption of acrylonitrile is limited. In the niche application field, the production capacity expansion of nitrile latex continues. The nitrile latex industry has become the field with the fastest expected growth in downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in 2021.
The ABS market once performed well in 2021, but this good momentum ended in the fourth quarter as production capacity increased. So far, the prices of some domestic high-end ABS have fallen to new lows this year, while low-end materials have gradually moved closer to the low prices at the beginning of the year, making it difficult to support acrylonitrile on the demand side.
Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Provincial Institute of Industry and Information Technology, said that although ABS production capacity has also been released simultaneously, the extent is much lower than that of upstream raw materials, so there is no need forThe lifting effect of acrylonitrile is not strong.
In addition, from the perspective of terminal demand, in recent years, the rapid development of new energy vehicles, Internet celebrity small appliances, 5G networks and other emerging industries has led to increasing demand for chips. However, due to the epidemic and labor shortages, many chip factories around the world have temporarily reduced production and suspended production, causing the global core shortage to spread. Affected by this, some automobile and home appliance companies once adopted measures to reduce and suspend production, which to a certain extent limited the operating level of ABS downstream companies. The growth rate of demand in the ABS industry was limited, which caused a backlash to upstream raw materials such as acrylonitrile.
In the downstream, except for the ABS industry, which has entered the production capacity release period, it is difficult for other industries to see a significant increase in demand. It is difficult for acrylonitrile consumption to exceed 3 million tons/year. It is expected that the supply will be in excess and the market bargaining power will be weakened. The market is difficult to be optimistic in 2022. .
Will the supply and demand pattern of the industry change again?
Generally speaking, the recent strong trend of international crude oil and the favorable conditions for acrylonitrile raw materials have driven a slight upward trend in acrylonitrile in the short term. In the long term, domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will increase significantly, and future demand from ABS, carbon fiber and nitrile latex is expected to increase.
Looking forward to 2022, in the acrylonitrile industry, there are still units such as Jilin Chemical (Jieyang) expected to be put into operation, and the pace of expansion of downstream ABS production capacity is expected to accelerate. The cumulative new production capacity is expected to reach more than 3 million tons, and the consumption of acrylonitrile is expected to increase significantly. The supply and demand pattern of the acrylonitrile industry will change significantly again.
Since most of the new ABS production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of 2022, the impact of acrylonitrile cost and fundamentals on prices will be further deepened, and the operating range of the overall acrylonitrile price in 2022 may be lower than that in 2021.
From 2021 to 2023, China will add 2.49 million tons/year acrylonitrile units. Multiple units will be put into operation in 2021, and many units are refining and chemical integrated supporting units, so they are more likely to be put into operation. Only ABS is developing rapidly downstream, and its large-scale production will be completed in 2022. Under the mismatch between supply and demand, the oversupply situation in the acrylonitrile market in 2021 will gradually ease in 2022. In the next three years, it is not ruled out that some private companies or companies without supporting upstream and downstream equipment will shelve acrylonitrile production plans. As the acrylonitrile market gradually changes from insufficient supply to oversupply, the export volume of acrylonitrile will increase year by year in the future and form a scale.
In the future, competition within the propylene industry chain will become more intense, and the market competition pattern will evolve from single-product market competition to market competition integrating products and product chains. It will be difficult to form a strong support for the acrylonitrile market in terms of cost.
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