Since December, Zheng cotton futures have entered a stage of continuous rebound and weakened oscillations, and the trend of the main CF2205 contract is very solid. As for the reason for the strong rebound of Zheng cotton in this round, the industry generally believes that it is supported by the return of the current price difference of Zheng cotton’s far-month contract, the continuous oscillation rise of ICE cotton futures and peripheral crude oil, agricultural products, etc., the official entry into force of RCEP, etc. In addition, since mid-December, a certain amount of spring and summer export orders have also supported the confidence of cotton textile mills, clothing and foreign trade companies, and a few cotton-using companies and traders have started replenishment operations before the Spring Festival.
Although the Zheng cotton CF2205 contract has exceeded the 21,000 yuan/ton mark in recent trading days, and the current disk and spot markets are relatively strong in resisting decline and pulling up, the author still judges that the main contract of Zheng cotton in January and February will be between 20,000 and 21,000 yuan. /ton carriage body is more likely to consolidate and oscillate for the following reasons:
First, the continued high inflation in the United States has forced the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish, and its impact on the global financial and commodity futures markets cannot be underestimated. The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting released yesterday showed that at the policy meeting that ended on December 15, Federal Reserve officials agreed to speed up the pace of tapering bond purchases, so that the bond purchase program would end in March; and Federal Reserve officials believed that rising inflation and labor Market jitters could prompt the central bank to raise interest rates earlier or faster than expected. Second, Europe and the United States have once again become the “epicenter” of the COVID-19 epidemic. Countries have upgraded their prevention and control measures. The impact on the economy, consumption, transportation, communication, etc. remains to be seen. Recently, the mutated Omicron strain of the new coronavirus has spread rampantly and intensified the epidemic in many places around the world. European and American countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the United States have successively reported record highs in new confirmed cases of new coronavirus in a single day. Third, insufficient orders in the first quarter of 2022, skyrocketing sea freight rates at ports from China to ASEAN countries, and the gradual unfavorable effects of the U.S. government’s ban on the import of cotton-related products will have a greater impact on domestic cotton consumption. The confidence of cotton, cotton textile, and clothing companies remains to be seen. Further recovery. Fourth, Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts have increased significantly in the past two months, and the pressure of firm sales may not be underestimated. According to statistics, as of January 5, 2022, there were 14,588 Zheng cotton warehouse receipts (about 620,000 tons), an increase of 492 compared with the same period in 2020/21, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and the proportion of cotton enterprises’ actual hedging is relatively high.
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