In 2021, against the background of demand recovery and inflation expectations, coupled with the global “supply chain crisis”, commodity prices will continue to be highly volatile, and PTA will show an overall upward trend. On the one hand, under the influence of the destocking pattern caused by the slow increase in production of U.S. shale oil and OPEC+ and the increase in demand for refined oil products brought about by the lifting of bans in Europe and the United States during the year, the bullish logic of crude oil fundamentals in the medium and long term this year supports the cost side of PTA, but on the other hand, On the other hand, under the original production expansion expectation of more than 16 million tons this year, PTA processing fees have always been compressed. At the same time, the global epidemic situation is not under control, and problems such as high sea freight prices and tight shipping capacity still exist. The situation has not been resolved, and the recovery of the polyester demand side is not as good as expected. Therefore, compared with other commercial chemicals, the trend of PTA can be said to be quite satisfactory, and it has always been running in line with the fundamentals.
In terms of price, from January to December 2021, the average price of PTA was 4711.54 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1105 yuan/ton from 3606.71 last year, an increase of 30.6%; the average import price was 694.18 US dollars/ton, which was 30.6% higher than last year. The annual price of US$468.2 increased by about US$225.98/ton, an increase of about 48.3%. The internal high was 5,555 yuan/ton at the end of July, and the low was 3,680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; the external high was also at $780/ton at the end of July, and the low was around $485/ton at the beginning of the year. The price difference between high and low in the internal market is around 50%, and in the external market it is around 60%.
In the first quarter, PTA returned to a reasonable range after repairing a round of valuation.
At the beginning of the year, the center of gravity of the commodity market rose again. The crack spread of petrochemical products showed strong performance. Crude oil led naphtha and PX to rise strongly. Among them, the structure of PX began to change to the Back structure of premium in recent months, coupled with the unexpected production reduction and shutdown of a small number of PTA units. , and the news that the new equipment may be delayed in production, PTA futures increased sharply, and PTA suppliers gradually increased their intraday prices. In mid-January, sporadic cases in the country began to increase, and many places advocated leaving migrant workers behind during the New Year, and PTA began to enter a shock mode. At the end of the month, there was an unexpected incident in the PX market. CICC’s PX unit failed to restart smoothly and was unable to supply goods throughout February. At the same time, a failure in Zhejiang Petrochemical’s reforming unit led to a reduction in PX production. The price difference between PX and NAP in the far month increased significantly, and PTA’s market price increased significantly during the two days at the end of the month. The sharp rise was accompanied by a strengthening of the basis. By the end of the month, the discount for spot supply at the end of January was 170 yuan/ton, the discount for supply at the end of February was 145 yuan/ton, the discount for delivery was 155 yuan/ton, and the discount at mid-March was 130 yuan/ton.
On February 4, the central bank carried out reverse repurchases as promised, and the commodity market began to rebound strongly. Due to expectations that crude oil may fluctuate violently during the New Year, the chemical sector chose to wait and see quietly before the holiday. Crude oil started to rise strongly during the holidays, and stimulated by the unexpected cold wave in Texas, the United States, many refineries in North America shut down their units, involving futures products such as PP, PE, styrene, ethylene glycol, and PVC. On the first day after the holiday, the performance of chemical sector products was extremely strong, and the bullish atmosphere for some discontinued products in North America became even stronger. Ethylene glycol, styrene, polyolefins, etc. experienced daily limit or surge; PTA initially relied on costs under the influence of crude oil prices. The bottom line gradually rose. In the second week after the holiday, with the cooperation of the news – PX prices rose sharply, March maintenance exceeded expectations and other factors – the rise accelerated, with a sharp jump of more than 500 yuan/ton in a single week, and the futures were almost harvested. With two daily limits, the basis continued to strengthen; on the evening of February 25, the three major exchanges issued risk warning letters. In addition, the market continued to be overheated after the holiday. U.S. stocks saw a sharp correction that night. Bulls concentrated on profits and PTA reduced their positions. It fell sharply. By the end of February, the spot supply offer in early March was at a discount of 90 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, the offer at the end of March was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton, and the delivery discount was 80-85 yuan/ton.
In March, due to the sudden rise in prices in February, some downstream partial order cancellations began to appear, which made it difficult to follow up on further buying orders, and the industry generated a small amount of negative feedback. In addition, the OPEC meeting was about to be held, and the market was not optimistic about the price after April. There is a strong expectation that the intensity of production cuts will weaken, and the center of gravity of the chemical market will fall, with the products that rose sharply in the early stage falling significantly. The PTA market price has dropped by nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the performance of polyester production and sales is weak. On the evening of the 4th, OPEC+ unexpectedly extended its current production cuts until the end of April. Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia continued to voluntarily cut production by an additional 1 million barrels per day. International oil prices continued to rise sharply, and WTI hit a high in more than 22 months. However, due to the sharp weakening of the metal sector that night and the weak macro atmosphere, PTA’s gains were limited. On the 8th, OPEC’s bullish sentiment continued, and PTA prices surged further in early trading that day. The market price once reached the upper limit, but it also reached the top price in March. Since the 9th, due to the continuous decline of the stock market, the commodity market has experienced a joint withdrawal of funds and stocks at the end of the afternoon of the 9th. The two raw material products of polyester have been favored by funds recently and have been reduced and plummeted for three consecutive days, which directly led to a sharp reduction in PTA processing fees. When the price reaches less than 300 yuan/ton, large-scale maintenance of PTA factories begins. During the March-April window period, basically every factory will “contribute” to the maintenance of at least one device. Some large factories have a total of 3 sets of devices for continuous maintenance. , the PTA inventory increase pattern from March to April was fundamentally reversed, turning into a continuous depletion of inventory. In the spot market, individual suppliers began to continue to repurchase spot goods, and another large supplier suspended the sale of forward futures. In the latter half of the year, suppliers announced reductions in April contract supply. Spot basis startsAgainst the backdrop of rising crude oil prices driven by the outbreak of the “energy crisis”, it still reflects a certain cost support effect. The U.S. dollar price has always fluctuated between 710 and 720 U.S. dollars per ton.
In the fourth quarter, the trend of PTA followed the commodity and experienced its second “roller coaster” market this year, but the overall fluctuation range was still more rational than other coal chemical products.
During the National Day, the OPEC meeting was held to maintain the previous incremental release of 400,000 barrels. At the same time, the U.S. debt crisis raised the time limit to December, and macro-systemic negative effects were eliminated. Therefore, crude oil prices rose strongly driven by the “energy crisis” caused by European natural gas. After the holiday, the market opened. Led by the unexpected shutdown of some equipment, the PTA futures price surged by more than 400 points, and the spot basis strengthened slightly by 5 yuan/ton. The price of PTA reached above 5,600 yuan/ton – after the benchmark crude oil price basically corrected the price difference, it began to rise and fall, and the spot basis spread also weakened day by day; on October 19, the country began to take major measures to curb speculation in overheated coal prices , the successive introduction of multiple policies caused coal prices to “cut in half” rapidly within two weeks. Affected by the resonance of the chemical industry sector, PTA fell to around 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and then with the finalization of the fourth batch of crude oil quotas, PTA officially began to enter the downward channel. The US dollar market also rose from US$710/ton to US$770/ton that month, and then fell back to around US$750/ton.
In November, the pressure on PTA supply and demand was more obvious that month, and the processing fee for the whole month was always kept at a marginal level. After the commodity market surged and fell sharply in October, coupled with the sharp surge in coal production, coal prices no longer With the strength of the rebound, the commodity market atmosphere was weak that month. On the other hand, crude oil prices showed sharp fluctuations that month. At the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve officially announced the launch of Taper and began to reduce the scale of bond purchases by 15 billion per month in December until the middle of next year. However, the Fed did not place special emphasis on its expected guidance on interest rate hikes, and the overall outlook was slightly more dovish than expected. The OPEC+ meeting maintained its original strategy of increasing production slightly, leading to market speculation that the United States may use strategic reserves to suppress oil prices. Although oil prices have declined in the first half of the month, they have always shown a certain resilience. In the second half of the year, many countries officially implemented crude oil storage dumping, and the actual intensity was slightly weaker than expected. In addition, OPEC+ stated that if the United States and other countries release strategic reserves, they may not increase supply according to the established plan. Crude oil prices experienced a false breakthrough. After Thanksgiving, due to A new mutated virus was discovered in South Africa, and many European and American countries suspended flights from South Africa, causing crude oil prices to begin to fall sharply. After a year, crude oil prices once again fell by more than 10% in a single day, with the lowest price of Brent oil hitting around US$67 per barrel. The collapse of costs and the weak supply and demand side of the market have caused PTA prices to fall sharply to near the lows of the year, even leading crude oil most of the time. Both PXN and PTA processing fees have been hit to historical extremes, triggering a resistance to the decline in basis. Due to the nature of the supply and the willingness of some suppliers to reduce production in December, by the end of the month, the supply discount for 01 contracts in early December was 30 yuan/ton, and the discount for delivery was 40 yuan/ton; in mid-December, the discount was 20-25 yuan/ton. The US dollar price that month also accompanied the collapse of costs and returned to around US$700/ton.
Crude oil prices stopped falling in December, commodity sentiment began to pick up along with expectations of a slight relaxation in domestic credit, and PTA basis spreads strengthened day by day. Under the joint support of the maintenance of multiple sets of equipment and the tight spot liquidity during the PTA contract negotiation, the PTA spot offer premium for the 01 contract was 15-20 yuan/ton; the supply price offer for the 05 contract in mid-January was 50-55 yuan/ton. tons, the bid discount for the 05 contract is 65 yuan/ton; the factory’s USD one-day trip offer also followed PX and rebounded to around US$720/ton.
</p
