In 2021, with cost-end support and increased maintenance of PTA’s own equipment, the focus of the domestic PTA market has shifted upward, and the spot market price has reached two highs. In 2021, the average domestic PTA spot market price increased by 1,088 yuan/ton (+29.91%) from 2020 to 4,725 yuan/ton for pick-up, and the average external price increased by 203 US dollars/ton (+43.28%) from the previous year to 672 US dollars/ton. Among them, the low point of the spot price was 3,698 yuan/ton on January 4, which was an increase of 758 yuan/ton (+25.78%) from last year’s low of 2,940 yuan/ton; the high point was 5,543 yuan/ton on October 11, which was higher than last year. The price rose by 553 yuan/ton (+11.08%) to 4990 yuan/ton. The mainstream fluctuation range of PTA spot prices throughout the year is 4,000-5,500 yuan/ton, which is a significant increase of 900-1,400 yuan/ton compared with the mainstream fluctuation range of 3,100-3,900 yuan/ton in 2020. The PTA trend in 2021 can be roughly divided into six stages:
The first phase: In January-February, as the Biden administration may launch a series of economic measures and Saudi Arabia cuts production, vaccination progress is accelerating, and countries around the world are easing epidemic restrictions. Goldman Sachs raised its crude oil price forecast and sang bullish crude oil, and the crude oil market rose; while On the PX end of the raw material, due to the cold wave in the United States and the earthquake in Japan, some unplanned maintenance installations have increased, and the market supply has tightened. The price of PX has risen sharply, which is a strong support for PTA. The spot price of PTA in January and February has increased from 3,698 yuan/ton in early January. It rose to 4,715 yuan/ton at the end of February, which was a period of rapid rise.
The second stage: From March to May, although there were many obstacles to the anti-epidemic vaccination plan, the uncertainty about the epidemic in Europe and the United States and other negative influences inhibited the upside of crude oil, Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduced production until the end of April, coupled with the US’s 1.9 trillion stimulus, The confidence of bulls in the market has been boosted. Goldman Sachs predicts rapid growth in oil demand in the next six months. At the same time, OPEC+ maintains its support for gradually increasing production. Global economic data is improving. Crude oil prices are mostly volatile, which still supports the PTA market; but PTA itself There are fewer equipment overhauls and the overall supply is higher. From March to May, the price of PTA adjusted from 4,680 yuan/ton in early March to 4,670 yuan/ton in late May, which was a period of slight fluctuation.
The third stage; from June to July, Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng Petrochemical both reduced their contract supply to about 50-70%, and it was the summer when there were many PTA device failures. In July, a total of 23.05 million tons of PTA were overhauled, and PTA was destocked. Obviously, the increase in PTA prices has a strong boost. The upstream crude oil side experienced an overall shock and slight increase in July, which also provided support for PTA. Due to improvements in cost and supply, PTA prices rose from 4,993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,498 yuan/ton at the end of July, which was a period of wide growth.
The fourth stage: from August to early September, this period was mainly affected by the accelerated spread of the Delta virus, the greater impact of new global COVID-19 cases, increased market concerns about crude oil demand, and the decline of the crude oil market; then, vaccine progress was better and US dollar crude oil inventories declined. , coupled with Hurricane Ida, forced a large-scale shutdown of oil production in the U.S. Gulf, which once pushed oil prices to highs. The ups and downs of crude oil did not provide good support to the PTA market. Major PTA manufacturers continued to reduce supply in August, and suppliers reduced supply for the sixth consecutive month. Spot circulation was tight in some areas, and PTA maintained a slight destocking. Later, with the restart of preliminary maintenance, the tight spot circulation eased. In addition, terminal orders are not good, and the procurement of downstream polyester is weak. Polyester has reduced production and guaranteed prices under the circumstances of high inventory pressure and severe product profit losses, and the demand for PTA has declined. The overall cost side and the supply and demand side are bearish, causing the PTA market price to drop from 5,525 yuan/ton in early August to 4,690 yuan/ton on September 9, which is a period of rapid decline.
The fifth stage: from mid-September to mid-to-early October, as the shortage of natural gas triggered an increase in demand for oil substitution, and winter heating demand supported the oil market sentiment, the prospect of energy supply shortages continued to push up oil prices, and many institutions were bullish on crude oil, with multiple benefits. Under the resonance, European and American crude oil futures once again hit multi-year highs, with WTI and Brent rising to US$84-86/barrel, which greatly boosted the PTA market. During this period, with the implementation of the dual control policy, maintenance of PTA equipment increased, causing a temporary mismatch between supply and demand. Under the influence of cost-side support and macro-control, the PTA market price rose from 4,750 yuan/ton in early September to 5,485 yuan/ton on October 15. This stage is a period of sharp increase.
The sixth stage: From mid-to-late October to the end of December, from October 16 to the end of November, as Austria announced a nationwide blockade, the market was worried that the violent counterattack of the epidemic in Europe would affect oil demand and economic recovery, and the possibility of the U.S. government intervening in oil prices Also putting pressure on the oil market, OPEC said that the release of oil reserves by consumer countries may exacerbate oversupply. The market is still worried that OPEC may adjust its production increase plan, and the new South African variant strain “Omicron” has triggered concerns that the restart of epidemic prevention blockades will threaten the recovery of global demand. Risk aversion Sentiment spread, crude oil and other risk assets suffered selling, European and American crude oil futures fell off a cliff, WTI price fell from 84.05 US dollars/barrel at the beginning of the month to 69.95 US dollars/barrel; Brent fell from 84.71 US dollars/barrel at the beginning of the month to 73.44 US dollars/ton, PTA cost The support collapsed and the support for PTA was poor. The price of PTA fell from 5543 yuan/ton on October 16 to a low of 4425 yuan/ton at the end of November. In December, although concerns about the Omicron virus variant still exist, and the Iran nuclear deal negotiations will be restarted again, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories is good for fermentation. Market concerns about the Omicron virus variant continue to ease, and European energy supplies Risks still exist. Coupled with production interruptions in some oil-producing countries, the crude oil market as a whole fluctuates and rises, which has a negative impact on the PTA market.Boosted by �, more PTA equipment was overhauled in December, and inventory was reduced. The market price of PTA rose from 4,425 yuan/ton at the end of November to 4,928 yuan/ton. However, the overall impact is less affected by fundamentals and more affected by fluctuations in cost-end crude oil. The PTA market price dropped from 5,475 yuan/ton on October 15 to 4,928 yuan/ton at the end of December, which is a downward adjustment period.
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