Polyester staple fiber is one of the polyester products. As of December 2021, the short fiber production capacity was 8.72 million tons, the output was 7.081 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 6.316 million tons. The consumption increased significantly compared with last year. In 2021, domestic production growth rate is 5.37%, and production capacity growth rate is 9.07%. The production capacity growth rate is higher than the output growth rate. There are two main reasons: on the one hand, due to the production capacity reached in the early stage, on the other hand, this year’s dual control policy has made domestic short fiber production A sharp decline.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As can be seen from the figure above, since 2017, the short fiber market’s production capacity and output have continued to grow, and its dependence on foreign countries has also continued to decrease. From 2017 to 2018, the production capacity of the short fiber market grew rapidly, and a large number of old production capacity returned to the market. The supply side of the short fiber market increased rapidly. However, downstream demand also maintained a high growth rate, and the fundamentals of supply and demand in the short fiber market maintained a tight balance. . As the price difference between virgin staple fiber and recycled staple fiber narrows, virgin staple fiber squeezes out part of the recycled staple fiber resources. In 2019, the production capacity of the polyester staple fiber industry reached its peak, with 600,000 tons of new production capacity put into operation that year. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, terminal market demand has been slow to recover, and under the continued severe impact of the Sino-US trade war and overseas epidemics, the growth rate of the terminal export market has slowed down. Therefore, the overall short fiber market has shown a situation of sufficient supply.
The market in 2021 is quite special. The market showed a tight supply balance in the first half of the year. In the middle of the year, the country’s dual control policy caused a large-scale decline in the start-up of the short fiber and downstream industries. This was coupled with the recurrence of foreign epidemics. Therefore, although the data showed year-on-year growth, The overall performance is average. As more short fiber production has been put into production in recent years and the domestic self-sufficiency rate has increased, the dependence on foreign countries has continued to decline.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
According to statistics, the average market price of 1.4D*38mm direct-spun staple fiber in 2021 is 7,006 yuan/ton, and its theoretical average profit is 222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 228 yuan/ton from 450 yuan/ton in the same period last year. As shown in the figure above, 2021 will generally show high profits in the first half of the year and bleak conditions in the second half. The main reason is due to the rise in crude oil during the Spring Festival. The price of the polyester industry chain has increased overall after the holiday. Among them, short fiber has low inventory and high demand. The largest increase was stimulated by. Downstream yarn mills and traders concentrated on replenishing goods, and there was no pressure on factory shipments. There was a strong intention to raise prices, and prices continued to increase widely. At that time, the price of raw materials was not as high as the increase in short fiber prices, so profits rose to At the annual high, the profit reached as high as 925 yuan/ton. Entering the middle of the year, the industry’s off-season has hit. Weak downstream demand has caused factory inventories to increase day by day. Factory procurement price cuts and promotions, coupled with the large amount of low-priced inventory from middlemen, have suppressed the market, and industry profits have fallen into continuous losses. Until the fourth quarter, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, short fiber prices rose rapidly, and industry profits were effectively restored.
</p
