According to the price monitoring of the business community, the polyester filament market continued to fluctuate and rebound in January. The quotations of polyester POY (150D/48F) from mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are at 7800-8150 yuan/ton, and the quotations of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) The price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8000-8350 yuan/ton.
Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market in January (unit: yuan/ton)
Driven by crude oil, the positive cost support is obvious. As of January 27, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was US$86.61/barrel, a decrease of US$0.74, or 0.9%, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was US$88.17/barrel, a decrease of US$0.57, or 0.64%. The March Brent crude oil contract rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the expected supply tightness continues to boost oil prices, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, and OPEC’s production increase is less than expected.
The domestic PTA market continued to rise in January, with the average market price in East China reaching 5,425 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 9.31% and a year-on-year increase of 42.72%. The pressure on the supply side remains the same. In January, many domestic PTA devices were restarted, and the industry’s start-up increased to more than 86%. With the addition of Yisheng New Materials’ 3.3 million-ton new device being commissioned at the end of January, PTA supply is expected to increase. However, two PTA units in East China announced maintenance plans, which significantly boosted the market.
On the current demand side, with the arrival of the long Spring Festival holiday, terminal textile factories are on holiday, and pre-holiday stocking is coming to an end. The purchase of raw materials is gradually reduced, and it is cautious to pursue higher prices. As dyeing plants and weaving operations are being shut down one after another, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped rapidly from 60% at the beginning of the month to less than 10%.
Judging from the business community textile index, as of January 28, the textile index was 1046 points, an increase of 35 points from 1011 points at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 9.52% from the highest point in the cycle of 1156 points (2018-09-03), and a decrease of 9.52% from 2020. The lowest point was 681 points on August 13, an increase of 53.60%.
In December 2021, my country’s total retail sales of consumer goods was 4,126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; of which, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles were 148.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. my country’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$30.211 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.31% and a month-on-month increase of 5.42%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was US$14.284 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.22%, and a month-on-month increase of 7.84%; the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was US$15.927 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.50%. A month-on-month decrease of 3.32%.
In the short term, oil market prices are expected to continue operating at high levels, but with the investment of new PTA production capacity and increased supply, cost-side support is expected to weaken. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of downstream terminal textile factories will further decline and the demand will be light. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will continue to rise weakly in February, and we still need to pay attention to the resumption of work on the demand side after the holiday.
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