Introduction: According to the price comparison of 46 major chemical products tracked, except for a few products that were stable on the first day of trading after the holiday in 2022, nearly 70% of chemical product prices showed an increase, and crude oil prices exceeded the 90 mark to provide support for some products. (This situation is similar to the same period last year, with nearly 79% of the varieties rising after the Spring Festival last year). Among them, products with a price increase of more than 10% include butyl octanol, plasticizers, toluene, xylene, and butyl acetate; products with a price increase of more than 5% include butyl acrylate, o-xylene, maleic anhydride, PTA, propylene, and polyester. Short fiber, fiber grade PET, etc.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The chain is introduced below:
Alkene chain:
Most of the chain’s main products opened after the holidays with prices rising, with the largest increase being butyl octanol, which increased by nearly 20%; followed by raw materials in the downstream plasticizer industry chain, with DOP increasing by about 14.59%. Olefin products have also seen significant increases, with Shandong propylene rising to 8,150-8,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.83%; Sinopec’s ethylene listed prices have mostly been raised to 8,000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 5.3%.
Specifically, the butanyl octanol chain has maintained a sharp upward trend so far during the holidays. The main varieties have increased by around 20%. Octanol has increased significantly, and the upstream inventory is low. The mentality of the industry is better. Its downstream butyl ester products have also increased significantly. Acrylic acid The price increase of butyl ester is 9.21%, and the demand is following up well. The plasticizer chain has continued to rise sharply since the holidays, following raw materials such as butyl octanol, with DOP increasing by 14.59%. In addition, during the Winter Olympics, factory operations were restricted and supply was low. The mentality of the industry was good, but the downstream start-up process was relatively slow. Other upstream plasticizers, phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride, are affected by factory maintenance and the market supply is in short supply. Driven by costs, factory quotations continue to rise, and the market is full of speculation, but follow-up on actual orders is light.
In terms of the olefin industry, international crude oil continues to strengthen, and olefin cost pressure is rising. Domestic ethylene and ethylene oxide are off to a good start after returning from the holiday. Ethylene increased by about 5.3%; ethylene oxide each increased by 4.3%. Demand is gradually picking up. Coupled with the support brought by costs, the overall industrial chain may be improving. Expectation is the main thing. The propylene market rose by around 5.83%. Under the influence of the Winter Olympics, Shandong’s local refineries were shut down and the burden increased. In addition, the current situation of polypropylene futures is improving, demand has picked up well, supply and demand continue to tighten, and propylene offers have risen sharply. The downstream acrylic acid quotation increased by 2.90%, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiry and purchase increased slowly. Most of them maintained pre-holiday scheduled supply delivery, and traders were mostly closed and waiting.
Aromatic hydrocarbon chain:
The main products of the aromatics industry chain have maintained an upward trend after the holiday, and the prices of some products have skyrocketed. Among them, toluene and xylene have seen the largest increases. Prices in major regions have increased by a thousand yuan compared with before the holiday. Toluene in East China has increased by 13.7%, mixed xylene has increased by 14.7%, and pure benzene has increased by 13.7%. The increase was 3.87%, and styrene increased by 2.54%.
Toluene and xylene have increased significantly less than upstream products such as crude oil and naphtha due to pre-holiday inventory clearance by manufacturers and cargo holders. During the holidays, crude oil futures prices continued to surge, and gasoline blending profits continued to expand. Starting from February 4, the negotiated price of mixed xylene in Shandong continued to rise significantly. After the holiday, blending users in North China actively purchased, further driving the strong rise in mixed xylene prices. It not only followed the increase in crude oil during the holidays, but also made up for the insufficient increase before the holiday, creating a skyrocketing situation.
At the same time, domestic supply pressure is not great after the holiday. Most manufacturers have small inventories and port inventories have not increased much. Toluene is in the middle and mixed xylene is still at medium to low levels, which also plays a supporting role in rising prices. However, toluene downstream users have not yet fully returned to the market. Although the spot price has risen sharply following xylene and other related products, the transaction volume is relatively small, and market negotiations are not active enough after the holiday.
The price of pure benzene maintained an upward trend after the holiday. The price point before the holiday was already high, but the increase was relatively small. The high opening of downstream styrene boosted the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene. The market operated at a strong price. However, as crude oil fluctuated downwards, The growth rate of styrene narrowed, the market peak fell slightly, and the wait and see situation heated up.
Styrene’s focus has surged after the holidays. Crude oil surged during the holidays. After the holiday, the main force of EB surged upward, which drove the spot market to open higher. Pure benzene on the raw material side rose sharply. However, terminal inventories increased significantly and downstream factories were still waiting to resume work. There was insufficient demand. Some profit-making orders fled on the highs, with an increase of Taken back.
Chemical fiber chain:
The main varieties of the chain increased sharply after the holiday. Among them, the market price of PTA increased by 5.88% compared with that before the holiday; secondly, the market price of polyester staple fiber increased by 5.26% compared with that before the holiday; the market price of fiber-grade PET increased by 5.15% compared with that before the holiday; the market price of bottle-grade PET increased by 5.15% compared with that before the holiday; The market price of polyester filament increased by 3.70% before the holiday; the market price of polyester filament increased by 2.50% compared with that before the holiday, and finally the market price of MEG increased by 1.78% compared with that before the holiday. Specifically:
PTA: During the Spring Festival, the international oil price rose sharply. With the help of the cost side, the PTA futures market opened sharply higher after the holiday and fluctuated at high levels during the day. The PTA spot market rose simultaneously, but some merchants have not yet returned to the market and reported on the market. The trading volume is sparse, the overall wait-and-see mood is strong, and the trading atmosphere during the day is slightly stalemate. At the same time, the new 3.3 million-ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials 2# was put into operation on January 28. Qualified products have been produced so far. The increase in supply has put pressure on the market rise.system. As of now, the East China main port offer for the 05 contract is reduced by 45 yuan/ton, and the offer is reduced by 55 yuan/ton, and the negotiation is around 5750-5770 yuan/ton; at the end of February, the offer for 05 is reduced by 40 yuan/ton, and the offer is reduced by 40 yuan/ton. 50 yuan/ton; the mid-March quotation of 05 is reduced by 20 yuan/ton; this week’s warehouse receipt quotation of 05 is reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and the delivery order is reduced by 60 yuan/ton. As downstream polyester factories and terminal weaving factories return to the market one after another, market demand is expected to improve, so the PTA market is likely to continue operating at a high level.
MEG: MEG spot opening price after the year has soared to 5,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% from the pre-holiday price. The rise in crude oil prices during the Spring Festival has driven the collective strength of the energy sector. The cost side of ethylene glycol has strong support, and bulls have pulled up the price. The mood is strong, but the inventory at ports is accumulating during the session, which aggravates the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. The downstream buying momentum is insufficient, and there is certain resistance to the price increase. The overall situation is relatively stalemate. As of now, the mainstream negotiated price of ethylene glycol in East China is at 5435-5445 yuan. / ton, an increase of 95 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; the negotiated price of goods in February is 5455-5465 yuan / ton. In the absence of substantial benefits on the supply and demand side, the MEG market may continue to fluctuate at high levels.
In terms of polyester: after the holiday, the domestic polyester market rose sharply. Driven by the rise in international oil prices, the market for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol has risen one after another, and the cost push has increased. Polyester companies have followed suit in their quotations and adjusted raw materials. The market growth of each product is concentrated between 2.5-5%. Terminal textile demand has not yet recovered, and market buying is still relatively deserted. The production and sales of polyester companies are mainly light. Among them, the production and sales of polyester companies are concentrated at 30-70%, and the mainstream production and sales of the staple fiber market are 0-20%.
Coal chemical industry chain:
Some varieties of this chain increased after the holiday. Among them, methanol, butyl acetate and maleic anhydride were mostly raised. Hydrogenated benzene, acetic acid, etc. had little fluctuation. Among them, butyl acetate had the largest increase. After the holiday, it rose to 11,300 yuan/ton, which was higher than before the holiday. The increase is around 18%; the price of maleic anhydride has been adjusted by 500-1,000 yuan/ton in various places, and the price of methanol has been increased by 30-200 yuan/ton in various places.
Methanol was significantly driven by futures after the holiday. The port paper spot price simultaneously rose to above 2,900 yuan/ton, up 70-130 yuan/ton. The overall performance of the mainland market inventory was acceptable. In the northwest Guanzhong region, it rose to 2,500-2,550 yuan/ton, up 70-130 yuan/ton. 150-200 yuan/ton. In addition, affected by the Winter Olympics in North China and Shandong, upstream and downstream construction starts have been reduced, and the supply side has shrunk more than expected. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with Shandong rising by 30-200 yuan/ton.
After the holiday, the domestic acetic acid market showed regional adjustments. North China and East China were temporarily stable, and corporate inventories remained low. Long-term contracts were mainly delivered, so the quotations were the same as before the holiday. The central China region fell sharply during the holidays, as companies had greater inventory pressure and strong intention to ship goods, giving profits and selling goods. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest region is high, but it has dropped to a low level before the holiday. In addition, recent snowfall has affected transportation capacity, so the quotations are temporarily stable.
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