After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, cotton yarn spinning companies have gradually resumed production. Due to the surge in external markets during the Spring Festival, Zheng cotton futures also rose sharply at the opening last Monday. The highest point of the 05 contract exceeded 22,200 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in Zheng cotton, The pure cotton yarn market also achieved a good start. As of February 11, 2022, CY C32S pure cotton yarn reported a closing price of 29,600 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from before the holiday.
International cotton prices hit a new high during the Spring Festival, boosted by strong export shipments of US cotton, supported by the difficulty in increasing the volume of Indian cotton on the market, and supported by the relatively limited increase in Pakistan’s cotton production. Zheng cotton futures on the first trading day after the holiday The index also rose sharply, but the increase was limited, and domestic cotton was significantly weaker than foreign cotton. At the same time, the expected increase in global cotton production in the next year has gradually begun to show signs, and the historically high cotton price will have a more obvious drag on downstream consumption. The room for international cotton price increases in the later period may be relatively limited. Sure enough, Zheng cotton, which opened high on the first day, closed down for three consecutive trading days in the next three trading days. The center of gravity of the futures price shifted slightly downward. In addition, the downstream market has not yet fully entered the operating state. Therefore, the spot lint cotton has neither When you call for price inquiry, there is no door-to-door inspection. As of February 11, the CC3128B index closed at 22,886 yuan/ton, only 159 yuan higher than before the holiday.
After the holiday, textile companies are more willing to increase prices, and the quotations are basically about 1,000 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday. There are also many textile companies that are waiting and not quoting. On the one hand, the price increase is due to the fact that cotton has increased by about 1,500 yuan/ton compared with the low point at the end of November, but the price of cotton yarn has only increased by 500-1,000 yuan/ton. The increase is obviously not as high as that of cotton, which has led to magnified losses of textile companies. Most textile companies have increased their losses this year. It is expected that the quotation will be raised by 500 yuan/ton after the year, and the high opening of Zheng cotton after the year will further push up the price increase line of textile enterprises. Although Zheng cotton has fallen back recently, the quotation increase of textile enterprises by 1,000 yuan is still relatively firm. Although the quotations of textile companies have been raised, it can be said that there are almost no actual transactions. On the one hand, most downstream operations will start on or after the tenth day of the Lunar New Year. On the other hand, weaving mills have insufficient orders after the year. They are also afraid of high-priced cotton and have a strong wait-and-see mood.
In terms of imported yarn, the outer price of yarn surged during the Spring Festival, and the price of imported cotton yarn increased one after another. The market quotations were relatively confusing, and most of them were tentative increases. In addition, judging from the current quotations in the market, the overall internal price of imported cotton yarn increased by about 400 yuan compared with the previous year. -1100 yuan/ton. As of February 11, the internal quotations of India’s C32S, Pakistan’s C20S, Vietnam’s C32S, and Uzbekistan’s C32S were 29,400, 27,500, 29,500, and 29,000 yuan/ton respectively, an average increase of more than a thousand yuan compared with the previous year. The reasons can be summarized as the following three points: First, the inventory of imported yarn is low. In 2021, excluding the Spring Festival in February, the three months with the lowest import volume in the whole year are October, November, and December; secondly, the external yarn price The high price makes it possible for the internal price of imported yarn to rise further; then, the main contract of US cotton futures rises during the Spring Festival. Zheng Cotton and domestic cotton yarn have a good start, which to a certain extent gives the confidence for the price increase of imported cotton yarn. But for now, although the price of imported cotton yarn has increased, it is currently in a state of price but no market. At present, downstream factories have not been fully started and the order situation has not improved significantly. Factories that have already started operations are still cautiously replenishing supplies. Whether imported cotton yarn can further rise in the market outlook requires further observation of the order status and start-up status of downstream factories.
Generally speaking, many textile companies have increased their quotations, and the cost pressure in the industrial chain is transmitted from cotton and cotton yarn to consumer terminals. However, at present, downstream operations such as weaving, clothing, and foreign trade companies have not yet started large-scale operations, and raw material procurement is still relatively deserted. Therefore, after the spot price of cotton and cotton yarn futures increased, they are still in a state of “price but no market”. On the international front, with the advent of the post-epidemic era, it is only a matter of time that the key issues such as tight shipping and rising freight rates will be resolved. Therefore, the view of supply and demand mismatch is not enough to support high cotton prices in the long term. On the other hand, the shortcomings of the economic stimulus plans adopted by various countries due to the raging global epidemic have initially emerged. Domestic inflation levels in major countries in the world are at high levels, and tightening monetary policies have been put on the agenda. After most international commodities have exceeded historical highs in 2021, The market will gradually come under pressure; and the country is facing three major pressures: demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, which also indicate that floral yarn prices will be difficult to operate at high levels for a long time.
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