Spot price: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price quoted in the domestic polyester staple market on February 23 was 7,751 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.11% from yesterday and a year-on-year increase of 2.58%.
Futures market: On February 23, the main contract of PF futures closed at 7370, which was 0.97% lower than yesterday’s settlement price. The settlement price was 7376; the trading volume was 105526 lots; the position was 119848, the position increased by 6595, and the basis difference was 381. Domestic polyester staple fiber raw material futures all closed down today, with PTA falling by 0.51% and ethylene glycol falling by 0.50%.
Analysis: In terms of costs, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia were lower than market expectations, and international oil prices fell from highs. Overnight, WTI New York crude oil CFD fell 1.29% to close at 91.6. Oil prices have fallen back, PTA cost support has weakened, downstream demand has not recovered significantly after the holiday, and production and sales are still relatively light. PTA’s device load has dropped slightly recently, and maintenance expectations are heating up, so the accumulation of inventory may slow down. The inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China has increased, downstream polyester procurement has slowed down, manufacturers’ inventories are high, and terminal orders are weak. The operating rate of short fiber has rebounded after the festival, and many sets of equipment are expected to restart, supply pressure has increased, and downstream operations have picked up, but the overall demand has rebounded slowly. The current short fiber spot quotation is relatively stable. Due to the lack of raw materials, the demand for polyester yarn is difficult to increase. Traders mainly digest the inventory from the year before, and the production and sales of yarn mills are basically not optimistic.
Forecast: In the short term, international crude oil prices are likely to rise but not fall due to factors such as the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, demand recovery, and the short fiber cost side has strong support. The market outlook for short fiber may still follow cost price fluctuations. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices and the resumption of upstream and downstream work after the holiday.
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