Crude oil: Crude oil surged this week. The market was mainly affected by the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine may reduce the global market’s oil demand by as much as 1 million barrels per day. And as the war continues, the market is more worried about supply issues. The two parties in the United States are calling for a ban on oil and natural gas imports from Russia. The situation in the global oil and gas market may become more dangerous. Putin has put nuclear deterrents on high alert. Nuclear deterrent alerts and bank payment restrictions have intensified people’s concerns about the world’s second largest producer. Oil country Russia is worried about oil supply interruptions, and there is also a high degree of uncertainty about the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations. In addition, the latest OPEC+ report has lowered its forecast of oversupply in the oil market in 2022. In the short term, oil prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at high levels; although The Iran nuclear agreement is expected to be reached, and the United States and other countries may release oil reserves, which may limit the increase in oil prices in the short term. However, if the geopolitical situation further escalates, the release of crude oil reserves may have a limited impact on oil prices. Ultimately, the main contract price of WTI this week rose by $24.09/ barrel to $115.68/barrel, and the main Brent contract price rose $20.18/barrel to $118.11/barrel.
Polyester polyester: Affected by the sharp rise in oil prices, polyester raw materials began to strengthen in the second half of this week. Currently, the price is mainly to make up for the increase. The overall processing fee is still at a low level. We will pay attention to the follow-up situation on the demand side. Once the demand side follows up, , the continuity and height of the overall rally can be further improved, but we need to be wary of the violent shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
In terms of polyester filament, the polyester filament market showed a slight upward trend this week, boosted by raw materials. Although polyester filament followed the increase in raw materials and the focus of transactions moved upward, it was far less than the increase in raw materials. Therefore, cash flow was greatly compressed, POY, Most FDY models have cash flow losses, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support the market. The current situation in Russia and Ukraine is volatile, and oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. With the support of the cost side, there are upward expectations for polyester filament. However, the oil price trend has deviated from the fundamentals and is influenced by the geopolitical situation. , the upward trend may not last long, so the price trend of polyester filament yarn will gradually return to the fundamentals after the middle of the month. In March, cost-side support will be the leading direction. With the help of the demand side, driven by high costs and strong demand, it is expected that Polyester prices may enter an upward channel.
In terms of short fiber, as oil prices soar, PTA costs rise. Currently, PTA processing fees are at a low level. Many manufacturers plan to reduce production and reduce burdens. The PTA supply side is expected to shrink, and the supply and demand pattern improves; ethylene glycol costs also rise, but Affected by oversupply, ethylene glycol port inventory is still high; as raw material costs increase, short fiber processing fees rise, processing profits rebound, and production and sales pick up; in terms of terminal textiles, the resumption of work after the Spring Festival is slow, and it will take time to improve, but traditional The demand for gold, three and silver is still expected. In the short term, the cost side of short fiber has strong support, and it is expected that short fiber will continue to fluctuate upward.
Nylon: The nylon filament market is weak and volatile. It fell first and then recovered slightly. The upstream raw material market fluctuated and fluctuated. The cost side has a direct impact. The supply of goods on the market is abundant. The overall operating rate of the industry is 81.5%. The comprehensive operating rate of terminal textile enterprises is 81.5%. 60% to 6.50%. Downstream end customers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing goods and continue to purchase on demand. The overall market is slightly struggling to complete orders for immediate needs. All parties have a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. Overall, the cost support effect can be maintained, and the downstream end market demand Follow-up is slow, and the nylon filament market is expected to stabilize in the short term.
Viscose fiber: The downstream has not yet reached the purchasing node, and the overall trading atmosphere is lackluster. After the viscose staple fiber pushed up last week, it has fallen back this week. The downstream has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with divided views on the market outlook, and pulp prices have risen. The profit margin of viscose staple fiber is further squeezed, coupled with the weak willingness to purchase downstream, the price of viscose staple fiber may be in a stalemate range; the current viscose filament market is stable and the trading atmosphere is acceptable.
Acrylic fiber: The acrylic fiber market has not changed much this week. Factory prices are firm, and early orders are still being shipped. Downstream yarn prices are stable, but there are not many new orders. The acrylic fiber market is expected to remain stable next week.
Average price trend of 40D spandex this week (click on the picture to view cost accounting per ton of yarn):
Weekly observation of spandex market:
The spandex market fluctuated and stabilized this week. The transaction price of 40D was concentrated between 50,500-55,500 yuan/ton. The current market price is chaotic, with low-price shipments and wait-and-see maintenance. Some manufacturers have raised prices for 40D and above specifications; price increases Driven by this, the production and sales of spandex factories are slightly better, the inventory pressure, especially the inventory of coarse denier yarns, has eased, and the equipment load continues to rise; pure MDI on the raw material end maintains its upward trend, and PTMEG rises slightly; the industry starts operating at 8.4%; various fields of terminal textiles follow up slightly, The operating rate of circular knitting machines, weaving and warp knitting enterprises is slightly better, with the overall operating rate around 6.50%. It is expected that the spandex market may enter a bottoming stage in the future.
On the specific cost side, the PTMEG market in the spandex field has increased slightly this week. The mainstream price of domestic 1800 molecular weight is concentrated at 41,000-41,500 yuan/ton. Some high-end supply prices are higher. The raw material BDO has maintained an upward trend this week, with the average offer price at 28,500 yuan/ton. Around tons, the cost-side support continues to strengthen. The PTMEG factory will basically be in a low inventory state after the year, and bullish expectations are gradually increasing. The downstream spandex production continues to rise, and demand has also recovered slightly. The PTMEG factory plans to raise its offer, waiting for the news to be released, and the market outlook will follow Driven by the cost side and the new spandex production capacity is gradually reaching capacity, PTMEG prices may stabilize and rebound.
Pure MDI maintains its upward trend. In terms of factories, the spot inventory on the market is low. The supplier maintains a supportive attitude towards the market and the high offer price remains stable. In terms of traders, most of them follow the market and ship, the low price converges, and there is a willingness to ship at a profit. Growth, maintain an optimistic attitude. On the downstream side, it is reported that some major factories are concentrating on large-scale purchases, the demand-side atmosphere has improved, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has increased. We are waiting for further information from the market to guide the market. The current domestic mainstream negotiation price is 24,900 yuan/ton.
Overall, pure MDI on the raw material side has been running at a high level and has been rising for two consecutive months. The recent trend of polymerized MDI has been weak. The upward momentum of pure MDI may decline and remain high and volatile. With the strength of BDO on the cost side and the recovery of spandex production, PTMEG It is expected to stabilize and rebound; the spandex market has sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. Although demand-side orders are placed earlier than last year, and some four-way stretch varieties have begun to sell well, in fact, the basis for a comprehensive increase in spandex prices is not strong at present. Most of the varieties are due to local supply shortages caused by previous product structure adjustments.
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