According to statistical data from some large and medium-sized cotton trading companies in Zhangjiagang, Qingdao and other places, since November 2021, cotton stocks in major domestic ports (including bonded + non-bonded) have continued to “exceed imports” every week, and there is no sign of a rebound. There are signs that the storage capacity pressure in some bonded zones in Qingdao, Guangzhou, Shanghai and other ports is getting smaller and smaller, and is currently relatively loose. Only some warehouses with better locations and relatively low charges are still slightly tight.
The person in charge of a bonded warehouse in Qingdao reported that as the shipment of US cotton in 2021/22 continued to increase in January and February, and the main contracts of Brazilian cotton, African cotton, Indian cotton, etc. fell below 120 cents/pound and 116 cents / pound and transactions have picked up sharply, it is expected that port cotton stocks will stop falling and rebound in April/May.
A cotton company in Henan said that on the one hand, due to the serious backlog of goods at various U.S. ports in the second half of 2021 and the slow shipment of U.S. cotton, some fourth-quarter contracts had to be postponed to the first half of 2022. Therefore, U.S. cotton has arrived at ports since November. The warehousing volume is low and slow, and cotton traders’ quotations/sales are mainly based on cargo; on the other hand, driven by the purchase price of seed cotton in 2021/22 and the spot price of lint cotton reaching a record high, Indian cotton FOB and CNF quotations have been high. Opening higher, the competitiveness of cargo, bonded cotton and customs-cleared cotton has declined significantly. Therefore, although Indian cotton shipments are not significantly affected by the epidemic, container and space shortages, the transaction volume has been very unsatisfactory (since late February, Indian cotton in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone The inventory accounts for more than 50% of the region’s cotton inventory). In addition, since October 2021, Chinatex Import and Export Company, China Cotton Group, etc. have continuously put medium and high-quality imported cotton on the market; coupled with the concentrated use of the remaining 1% cotton import quota in 2021 before the end of February, , so although the main ICE cotton futures contract once rose to the 122-125 cents/pound range, port cotton inquiries/shipments have been tepid.
So what is the total cotton inventory in China’s main ports so far? Statistics/predictions from some institutions and cotton-related enterprises may be between 210,000 and 230,000 tons, of which the total cotton inventory in Jiaozhou Peninsula is about 130,000-140,000 tons (including Huangdao); the cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang and Nanjing, Nantong, Jiangyin and other ports is about 5.0-230,000 tons. 52,000 tons (including about 32,000-33,000 tons in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone), and cotton stocks in other ports such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Ningbo total 50,000-60,000 tons.
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