According to the March report of the Australian Agricultural Resources Economic Research Service, Australia’s cotton planting area is expected to increase by 121% in 2021/22, reaching 657,000 hectares, an increase of 20% from the agricultural products report in December 2021. This is because the dryland planting area is far greater. Exceeded expectations.
La Niña conditions in 2020/21 and the Indian Ocean Negative Dipole in winter 2021 brought significant rainfall to eastern Australia’s growing regions, replenishing on-farm and off-farm storage and increasing the amount of water available for irrigating cotton. The La Niña climate in 2021/22 once again brought large amounts of seasonal rainfall and prompted growers to plant large amounts of dryland cotton. If favorable conditions continue throughout the remainder of the growing season and surfaces are relatively dry, above-average yields are expected. Australia’s cotton production in 2021/22 is expected to increase by 91% to 1.158 million tons.
The Australian cotton planting area is expected to decrease slightly to 623,000 hectares in 2022/23. The decrease in area is based on average rainfall in 2022/23, which may lead to a significant reduction in dryland cotton planting. However, good water availability for irrigated crops is expected to continue into 2022/23, leading to an increase in irrigated cotton area. Despite a decline in overall acreage, higher yields from irrigated fields are expected to push Australian cotton production near record levels. In 2022/23, Australian cotton production is expected to increase by a further 3%.
In subsequent years, cotton acreage and production are expected to decline significantly as water storage utilization and seasonal rainfall decrease. The timing of drought is a key driver of cotton acreage and production. The drought in 2023/24 is expected to cause the planting area to drop to 209,000 hectares and production to 335,000 tons in 2024/25. Subsequently, with increased rainfall in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, the planting area and production will increase slightly. However, if a drought occurs in 2024/25 (under the slower recovery scenario), greater water depletion is expected to result in a more significant area decline, with Australian cotton area expected to be only 179,000 hectares in 2025/26 and production dropped to 279,000 tons. In 2026/27, planted area and production are expected to increase slightly due to improved seasonal conditions.
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