On March 8, after some polyester factories took the lead in announcing maintenance plans for mid-to-late March, the market slowly began to supply key polyester. At present, the inventory of polyester factories has not improved significantly, and the profit levels of each product are low. Can the familiar “recipe” of shutdown + price increase be repeated in the near future? It has attracted strong attention in the market recently.
PTA loses money, polyester filament loses money
The polyester industry chain may be in decline
The polyester load was generally high during the Spring Festival, and supply continued to increase after the holiday. The supply of polyester filament in February was 2.261 million tons, an increase of 19.3% over the same period last year. However, the return of workers on the downstream demand side and the placement of new orders were limited, and the recovery was slow. , coupled with downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials, poor purchasing enthusiasm, increased factory inventory pressure, weak market upwards, and rapid squeeze on profits. As of March 9, the polymerization cost was 7,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.68% from before the Spring Festival, while the polyester filament POY150D/48F was 8,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.05% from before the Spring Festival. The follow-up increase of polyester filament was limited, and profits Encountered a rapid squeeze.
The upstream raw material for polyester filament, PTA, is also terrible. As of March 9, the processing fee of PTA has been reduced to -13 yuan/ton. Taking into account the cost of acetic acid, the processing fee will be reduced to around -160 yuan/ton. The substantial compression of PTA processing fees is due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, with Brent prices once climbing to 127.98 yuan/ton. At the same time, the PX market is relatively tight, supporting the sharp strengthening of prices, and the cost side has risen strongly, while downstream demand has followed suit. Due to lackluster imports and limited growth in PTA prices, processing fees continue to be low. On the other hand, PTA is still in the production cycle. In the past two years, new PTA devices have been put into production one after another. The situation of oversupply has caused corporate profits to continue to shrink. Although some high-cost devices have gradually withdrawn from the market, they are still in a cycle of oversupply and have not yet completely and effectively improved the situation. , so processing fees have been continuously compressed since February.
Is the familiar formula of “shutdown + price increase” happening?
Since the end of February, due to the continued low processing fees, some PTA factories have successively released news about maintenance and load reduction. At present, the 2.25 million tons unit of Yisheng Chemical has been restarted, while the restart time of Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons unit has been postponed to be determined. The two units of Yisheng New Materials maintain one and a half operations, and Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million tons unit was reduced to 80% operation in early March. Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 350,000-ton plant was shut down in early March, Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million-ton plant was scheduled to be temporarily shut down for a week starting last weekend, and Hengli Petrochemical Line 4 was scheduled to start maintenance on March 10; in addition, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000-ton unit, Zhuhai Ineos The 1.25 million ton units are all expected to undergo maintenance in late March; Hengli Petrochemical Line 1, Jiaxing Petrochemical and Hainan Yisheng and other units are expected to undergo maintenance in April. PTA maintenance is still expected, but the processing fee has not been affected by the maintenance. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the factory’s maintenance cycle may be extended due to the continued low processing fee.
At present, the weaving start-up rate is slowly increasing, the raw material cost side is under great pressure, and under the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, export resistance is increasing. Most downstream weaving factories maintain basic operations. The overall performance of the end market is satisfactory, and the dull atmosphere is transmitted from the bottom up. Polyester companies’ price reductions and promotions have had some success recently, but polyester factory inventories have not improved significantly, and the profit levels of each product are low. It cannot be ruled out that polyester companies may reduce production, such as Hengyi, Sanfangxiang, Rongsheng, etc. The enterprise has an equipment maintenance plan.
The skyrocketing crude oil price, repeated epidemics, and the complex and changeable domestic and foreign macro-environment have made it difficult for downstream terminal demand to fully recover, and downstream companies have a weak desire to purchase. At present, a small number of polyester companies have arranged maintenance plans for March, and follow-up is not ruled out. There is also the possibility that other polyester companies will join in shutting down and reducing production.
But, can this wave of visible operations boost the rise in raw materials? The editor believes that although the polyester market has partially rebounded after the action, supply and demand pressures still exist, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream is still strong. From the supply and demand side of the polyester industry chain itself, although high costs and low profits support prices, high inventory and low demand still inhibit its upside. Therefore, in the short term, polyester prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and maintain low-profit operations.
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