How sharply it rose, and how miserably it fell!
In the early stage, chemical fiber raw materials were strongly driven up by the price of cost-end crude oil, and the price center of gravity continued to move upward. The main contract of PTA2205 shot up to 6616 on March 9, setting a new high in the past three years. But after the sharp rise, a market collapse may follow! Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased, market sentiment has reversed, and international oil prices have plummeted in panic. At the same time, the domestic epidemic has rebounded, chemical fiber and textile transportation has been blocked, and demand has been difficult to improve. After losing the strong support of oil prices and weak demand recovery, the current focus is on Where will the ester market go?
Epidemic counterattack in 23 provinces
Chemical fiber textile transportation is blocked, and downstream demand may drop sharply
Spread! The domestic epidemic situation is suddenly serious!
On March 13, there were 1,337+788 new cases in the local area. The number of local infections in a single day exceeded 2,000 for two consecutive days, involving 23 provinces and cities! At present, North China, East China, and South China have all experienced relatively obvious epidemic risk control, and delivery and transportation have been blocked in some areas! Warehouses in many places across the country have strict requirements for picking up goods during the epidemic. For vehicles from other provinces and areas with asterisks in the itinerary code, nucleic acid reports must be reported within 24 hours or 48 hours, which may have an adverse impact on downstream demand! Suppress market trading mentality.
From a downstream perspective, the impact of current restrictions on logistics and transportation on downstream factories is mainly on the sales of finished products. Also due to certain restrictions on vehicle transportation, finished products cannot be shipped out. Even if there are orders to be purchased, logistics is suspended, some traffic is controlled, and transportation is more difficult. Procurement is more cautious. Most people are waiting and watching, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not high.
It is expected that in the short term, finished product inventory of downstream companies may accumulate to a certain extent. If it accumulates to a certain extent, it is expected to affect the operating rate of downstream companies to a certain extent.
Crude oil is not immune
High market sentiment suddenly dropped
Affected by the surge in COVID-19 cases in many places in China over the weekend and the gradual tightening of control in many places, market demand expectations for the peak season have cooled down. At the same time, the recent disturbances in the situation between Russia and Ukraine have weakened, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week, the market’s high sentiment has suddenly dropped!
In addition, the international situation is turbulent, and crude oil, which is highly popular and attracts much attention, cannot escape the disaster! As of the morning of the 15th, WTI crude oil futures fell more than 6.00% during the day, reporting at $101.38 per barrel!
According to CCTV news, both Ukraine and Russia have actively expressed their respective positions, and the two sides are still in communication. There is an optimistic signal about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and crude oil may reach a short-term high of US$130!
International crude oil has been falling, and the domestic raw material futures market is also “painfully green”! The spot market falls again!
It is difficult for a short-term “bull head” to rise
The polyester adjustment cycle will also be lengthened as a result.
Overall, the editor believes that it will still face adjustment pressure in the short term. From the perspective of raw materials, the adjustment of crude oil prices is affected by factors such as international politics and the improvement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is estimated that it will be difficult to lift the “bull head” in the short term. In addition, considering the current weak demand situation, the polyester raw material market is also the same Facing the embarrassing situation of relative oversupply, this is also not conducive to the operation of the polyester market. Looking at polyester itself, first of all, the imbalance in its supply and demand relationship has become its fatal “flaw”. In addition, the fluctuation of traders’ mentality has also had a certain destructive effect on the market.
The more important problem is that in the downstream, with the recurrence of epidemics and pressure on environmental protection, a series of “earthquake” effects have been produced on the entire industry. You can imagine how difficult the living environment of the textile industry will be under the intensive negative environment. , manifested in the downstream aspect, that is, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has been severely hit, which in turn has a vicious circle effect on the entire industry. Therefore, from the above three levels, the editor believes that the polyester market will still have adjustment pressure in the short term, especially when various downstream factors cause the peak season to be delayed in the first half of the year, and the adjustment cycle will also be lengthened.
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