It rose sharply by US$41/barrel in five days, and fell back to a single-day high of US$26/barrel. In just nine trading days since March, the international crude oil price has fluctuated by 41.6%, which is very rare in history. Also performing extreme performances are bulk textile raw materials such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and cotton. Such market conditions have made it difficult for practitioners to resist, forcing more and more companies to wait and see, resulting in a lack of liquidity in the market, and sharp price fluctuations. Physical textile companies have brought huge challenges.
More than just raw materials that have skyrocketed and plummeted
Gray cloth, fabrics, clothing and other consumer terminals are facing double pressure
Risks outweigh opportunities, making operational purchasing decisions in real industries more difficult.
Some textile companies in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places have reported that since early March, gauze stockpiles have continued to rise and cash flow pressure has increased. With the comprehensive escalation of epidemic prevention and control in some areas, the transportation of raw materials is not smooth, and small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced production and reduced production. The willingness to open the machine continues to increase.
A medium-sized textile company in Texas said that there are currently epidemics in areas where some cotton warehouses are located in Shandong, Hebei and other areas. Drivers need to carry a 48-hour nucleic acid certificate, otherwise they will not be able to transport goods at high speeds normally. Some warehouses require drivers whose vehicles pass through epidemic areas and have * marks in their itinerary codes to contact the warehouse in advance, and the warehouse will bring proof to pick them up at the highway entrance. Not only does the short-term replenishment cost increase, but the replenishment time is also lengthened. In addition, the epidemic control measures in some light textile markets in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places have intensified. In addition, the prosperity of clothing orders has been significantly weaker than expected. The enthusiasm of traders and weaving factories in coastal areas for inquiry and purchase has continued to decline, and the replenishment time has been repeatedly postponed.
According to reports from some textile and clothing companies in Shaoxing, Suzhou and other places, printing and dyeing factories have recently notified customers that dyeing fees will be significantly increased. Direct dyeing generally increases by 500-600 yuan per ton, and secondary styling increases by 1,000 yuan per ton. Recently, the prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other energy sources have risen sharply, and geothermal power plants in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have also raised steam prices, resulting in a significant increase in dyeing factory costs. The pressure can only be quickly transferred to downstream fabrics, clothing and other customers.
An import and export company in Zhejiang said that it is currently difficult to directly transfer dyeing fee increases to consumer terminals. Textile and clothing export orders have been weak since 2022, and the quality of “gold, three, silver and four” is obviously insufficient. If the quotation is increased, the loss of orders may be accelerated. It is also difficult for foreign trade companies to digest, so they can only reduce the number of medium and long-term orders, and at the same time negotiate with customers to bear part of the increased costs. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused air freight prices to double and is now having a serious impact on sea freight. As the supply of container ships decreases and oil prices continue to rise, shipping companies use emergency fuel surcharges to pass costs on to freight companies, and freight companies pass them on to sellers. Consumer terminals such as gray fabrics, fabrics, and clothing are experiencing dual pressures from rising costs.
Demand is difficult to increase, and raw materials are difficult to produce.
The market situation of polyester filament still needs to wait
Generally speaking, from the perspective of upstream raw materials, under the premise that the situation between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for three weeks and is likely to ease, it is basically difficult to see the explosive benefits of crude oil. The downward pressure on crude oil will continue to exist in the raw material market. In other words In other words, if the market for polyester raw materials wants to strengthen, there will be great resistance. Following the trend, polyester filament, which has always followed the lead of polyester raw materials, will inevitably make some negative reactions when the raw materials weaken. Therefore, from the perspective of upstream polyester Look, it will not bring any substantial benefits to polyester filament in the short term.
Upstream raw materials currently lack the motivation and foundation to strengthen, so will the downstream market gradually improve in late March? The editor feels that the improvement in the downstream needs everyone’s patience. The first reason is that there is still no improvement in the level of downstream weaving. The weaving operation rate of major domestic weaving bases currently averages around 75%. Due to the impact of factors such as repeated epidemics and financial constraints, local weaving companies are eager to increase the operation rate again. If it is not strong, the operating rate cannot be improved, which means that it is difficult to increase demand. Without demand as support, the rise of polyester filament market will be greatly affected; the second reason is the current inventory pressure of weaving enterprises in the foreign trade market, RMB Appreciation and other factors are greatly affected, which has put great pressure on the funds of weaving enterprises. Finally, looking at the sales of the lining market, the current market sales are also very average, and the sales of various products are not ideal, which is also very unfavorable for the polyester filament market.
In addition to the fact that the upstream and downstream markets cannot give polyester filament strong momentum in the short term, from the perspective of the polyester industry itself, the current inventory has a further upward trend. However, considering the existence of the traditional peak season, orders will tend to improve. Under these factors Under the support of the market, the polyester filament market still has the conditions and foundation for upward growth. The problem now is nothing more than the length of waiting time.
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