“Lewis turning point” has become a frequently used word related to the structural adjustment of the textile industry
“Lewis turning point” has become a high-frequency word closely related to the structural adjustment of the fabric industry. At present, domestic and foreign economic circles have turned from debate to consensus on this economic phenomenon, believing that the “Lewis turning point” has already appeared in China, especially in the eastern coastal areas. The “Lewis turning point” directly manifests as a significant increase in labor costs and a shift from abundant labor to shortage. This situation will continue for five to ten years. The reporter felt this during recent corporate interviews.
This view was proposed by American economist Arthur Lewis, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics. “With the growth of the labor force, there is a large amount of hidden unemployment in the agricultural sector. When the industrial sector provides a higher established level of wages, the agricultural sector labor force transfers to the industrial sector, and with the transfer of rural surplus labor, the industrial sector continues to expand . Since the supply of labor is unlimited at a given wage level, the industrial sector will convert profits into reinvestment while the actual wage remains unchanged, and the scale will continue to expand until all the rural surplus labor is absorbed. At this time, the wage There has been a transition from level leisure to steep rise. Economics calls it the “Lewis turning point”. Labor-intensive industries such as fabrics are most sensitive to this phenomenon, which has played a strong catalytic role in the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries. .”He thinks.
Will the advantages of labor-intensive industries be exhausted
Since 2010, China’s labor shortage has become very prominent. According to estimates by relevant departments, the wages of low-end workers surged by nearly 40% in 2010, and will continue to rise at an annual rate of 20% to 30% in the next three to four years. In fact, China has not yet reached the point where there is an absolute shortage of migrant workers, but the flow of migrant workers has changed. In 2005, 70.3% of migrant workers went to coastal areas to work, with the central and western regions accounting for 14.4% and 15.0% respectively. In 2009, with the relocation of factory production lines and the launch of infrastructure projects, many new job opportunities emerged in the central and western regions, attracting 17.0% and 20.3% of the total number of migrant workers, while the proportion of migrant workers staying in the east decreased to 62.5%. At the same time, the domestic demand market (especially the service industry) is booming, and the demand for low-end labor is strong, which has robbed a group of workers from the coastal manufacturing industry. At the same time, the price of agricultural products has increased, and a number of migrant workers have stayed at home to farm.
In short, before the “Lewis Turning Point”, people are looking for jobs, and there will be an endless supply of labor without raising wages; “Lewis Turning Point”
After the emergence, people are looking for jobs. Without a salary increase, they will not be able to find suitable employees. After the Spring Festival this year, serious job shortages occurred in coastal areas and inland areas at the same time. Among them, the labor shortage in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong reaches 2 million. Anhui, a province with a large population and a large number of migrant workers, where about 12 million migrant workers go out to work all year round, is also experiencing a “labor shortage”. Local entrepreneurs believe that the “demographic dividend” of China’s economic development is drying up, labor shortages are becoming a common phenomenon in the mainland, and traditional labor-intensive industries will accelerate their loss of labor cost advantages. The “labor shortage” in provinces with large migrant workers can be seen as a signal of the “Lewis turning point” in the labor market.
In interviews, companies have another view on this phenomenon. The “labor shortage” does not mean that traditional labor-intensive industries are accelerating the loss of their advantages. Not to mention that the wage level in China’s manufacturing industry is less than 1/10 of that in the United States, and the relative price advantage of labor will not be lost immediately; not to mention that China’s total labor force is huge. One forecast shows that there will still be 970 million people, which is larger than the current total. By then, the working population will account for about 67% of the country’s total population, which is still higher than most developed countries today. They think.
Regarding these two views, Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made a more authoritative inference. He said that although it can be concluded that the “Lewis turning point” has occurred, my country’s advantages in labor supply Will keep it for a long time.
The developed eastern regions face the test first
When reporters interviewed in developed eastern coastal areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian, they found that rising labor costs and labor shortages were most obvious there. The person in charge of Foshan Xinwan Knitted Fabrics Company told reporters that the employment situation of fabric companies in Foshan is becoming increasingly tense. In the past two years, the phenomenon of migrant workers returning home after the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays and not returning to work has often occurred and is quite common. At the same time, workers’ calls for higher wages are getting louder. The person in charge told reporters, “In order to stabilize production, companies generally fully meet the requirements of workers. However, the company’s labor costs have risen sharply. In addition, the comprehensive costs of raw materials, energy, etc. continue to rise. The burden on companies has become heavier and heavier, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.” It’s unbearable for businesses.”
The arrival of the “Lewis turning point” is inevitable, and the development of the fabric industry is also facing a rebirth. “Those extensive and low-tech growth points should be allowed to shrink if they should be shrunk; those capitals that only value my country’s cheap labor should be allowed to go. Losing these is not terrible, as long as we can achieve industrial upgrading. , improve resource utilization efficiency, increase product added value, and transform traditional manufacturing into advanced manufacturing.�High core competitiveness. “The person in charge of Guangdong Langdeng Workwear Co., Ltd. believes.
“The “Lewis turning point” is a good opportunity to form a healthy labor market system. Chen Lifen, chairman of Jiangsu Yangwan Group, said when talking about the current labor shortage in the industry, on the one hand, the labor shortage is actually a shortage of rights for migrant workers. The shortage of migrant workers is actually a shortage of rights or a shortage of systems, which requires us to do more work in protecting the rights of migrant workers; on the other hand, we must strengthen the supply of education, especially the supply of vocational skills education, improve the quality and level of the labor force, and meet the needs of industrial upgrading. Labor market demand. “Some entrepreneurs believe.
Industry experts pointed out that the emergence of the “Lewis turning point” has brought about 20 years of labor shortages in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. They also reminded that when the cloth industry is transferred to the eastern region, adjustments must be appropriate to prevent excessive labor intensity. The collapse of large-scale enterprises has led to the reappearance of a massive surplus of labor, which is the reversal of the “Lewis turning point”. This will have a negative impact on industrial progress and social stability.
In this regard, Zhou Sheng, chairman of Shenzhen Yizhihui Group, believes that an effective countermeasure to rising labor costs is to use high-end talents to develop high-end industries. my country’s fabric workwear companies can consider upgrading on-site and move towards independent brands and high added value. However, what must be given priority is that due to high human capital requirements, companies must also make corresponding adjustments and improvements in innovation environment and cultural systems.
Solve the turning point problem with reasonable industrial policies
my country’s agricultural population still accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the agricultural labor force accounts for more than 50% of the total employed population. This realistic decision-making “Lewis turning point” will appear as a long-term process in our country. It has also been decided that for a long time to come, our country cannot abandon its labor-intensive industrial development strategy, but should implement innovations in the use of labor based on changes in international industries and improve the level of industrial absorption of labor.
The heads of some export-oriented enterprises said in interviews with reporters that from the perspective of international experience, a country should fully avoid premature capital deepening in the early stages of the “Lewis Turning Point” and should use labor force The trend of innovation ensures that the abundant unskilled labor force can be utilized to the maximum extent. Only when the situation of surplus labor no longer exists and real wages begin to rise significantly, and after experiencing capital shallowing growth, capital deepening will occur. This is where Japan’s successful experience lies.
Chen Lifen, chairman of Jiangsu Yangwan Group, as the whole
Deputies to the National People’s Congress have studied this economic phenomenon quite a bit. The big change brought about by the “Lewis Turning Point” is that companies must work harder on technological content and brand building. Only by relying on industrial upgrading can problems be solved. The first is the transformation of the labor force. The government should increase labor force training, improve human capital, adjust the labor force structure, and improve the employment skills of the labor force through the development of technical education and vocational education. This is in line with both the principle of justice and the principle of the market. Second, enterprises should improve labor productivity and carry out technological innovation. Even labor-intensive enterprises have great potential. In the past, the work of two people can be completed by one person through technical means. She thinks.
“From an empirical point of view, if the emergence of the ‘Lewis turning point’ is the result of sufficient market selection, then an economy will definitely breed a group of innovative entrepreneurs, develop more emerging industries, accumulate talents, and The role of improving overall product quality. In the process of transformation and upgrading, companies have a unique perspective. When they see that the labor advantage no longer exists, they will develop their own new directions. Before the 1960s, Japan was also labor-intensive. After the industry made money, the economy took off, labor began to be in short supply, and workers demanded higher wages, which is very similar to the current situation in China. When Japan faces the ‘Lewis Turning Point’, we can learn from many specific practices of the government.” Chen Lifen said.
“China is currently very much like the situation in Japan in the 1960s. At that time, in order to solve the “labor shortage”, Japan increased investment in equipment and shifted to capital-intensive industries. Moreover, Japanese banks provided loans and invested in technological innovation, allowing small and medium-sized enterprises to rapidly Differentiation. At that time, some small and medium-sized enterprises laid the foundation for becoming international large companies. For example, Sony emerged in the 1960s and purchased American radio patent technology for improvement. Walkman was born, as was the case with Casio calculators. . In short, the Japanese economy successfully transformed in the 1960s, and the vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises doubled, and their profit margins were even higher than those of large enterprises. “The reporter learned during the interview.
Faced with the “Lewis turning point” that still confuses domestic fabric companies, what should we learn from Japan’s successful experience?
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