As of June 10, Beijing time, the eighth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the reference crude oil change rate calculated by the commodity information agency Jinlianchuang was 5.61%, corresponding to the domestic gasoline and diesel retail price limit increase of 340 yuan/ton. .
Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Shan pointed out that this round of price adjustment window will be realized at 24:00 on June 14. Affected by inertia, it is expected that the scope of this retail price limit increase may be widened.
The current retail price limit of domestic refined oil products has reached a new high. It is expected that when the new round of retail price limit increases is implemented, domestic refined oil prices will reach new highs.
In the past two years, as international oil prices have rebounded from the bottom, domestic refined oil prices have also continued to rise. From January 1, 2021 to June 10, 2022, in less than a year and a half, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil products has experienced a total of 24 increases, seven decreases and four strandings. Nine advances and one decline were cashed.
After all the increases and decreases since 2021 are offset, the domestic retail retail price limit of gasoline has been raised by a total of 3,815 yuan/ton, and the retail retail price limit of diesel has been raised by a total of 3,675 yuan/ton.
Car owners’ car costs also increased significantly during this period.
According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculations, taking oil prices in Hubei as an example, No. 92 gasoline has risen from 5.96 yuan/liter at the beginning of last year to 9.03 yuan/liter. It costs 153.5 yuan more to fill a 50-liter private car fuel tank; No. 95 gasoline has increased from 6.38 yuan/liter at the beginning of last year to the current 9.66 yuan/liter. It costs 216.48 yuan more to fill a 66-liter high-end car fuel tank; the price of No. 0 diesel has also increased from 5.55 yuan/liter. to 8.71 yuan/liter. Based on a truck running 10,000 kilometers per month and consuming 40 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers, it will cost approximately 6,320 yuan more per cycle.
Since March this year, with the development of geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe, Russian oil has been subject to sanctions, the peak oil demand season in the northern hemisphere has gradually arrived, the structural imbalance of the global crude oil market has intensified, and oil prices have continued to remain at multi-year highs.
Wang Shan pointed out that we are currently in the traditional peak season of demand, and it is also the season with high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes in North America. Crude oil has a tendency to hit new highs and does not rule out the possibility of breaking through 130 US dollars per barrel.
According to data monitored by Jinlianchuang, after the new round of refined oil retail price increases on May 30, the price of No. 92 gasoline in most areas of the country has reached around 9 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline has generally exceeded 9.5 yuan/liter. Literally, the retail price limit of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline in Haikou has exceeded 10 yuan/liter, and the retail price of No. 95 gasoline in Tibet has also exceeded 10 yuan/liter.
Wang Shan said that as oil prices have risen to highs, consumers’ resistance has gradually grown, and people have increased their choices for green travel. The decline in domestic car sales and the growth in new energy vehicle sales also reflect, to a certain extent, consumers’ concerns about the cost of traveling with fuel vehicles. considerations and choices.
Due to the impact of epidemic control factors, the sales volume of gas stations in various regions is generally lower than that of the same period in previous years. In some areas where the epidemic has been greatly affected, the sales volume is even less than 60% of the level of the same period.
Wang Shan said that the current profit margin of refined oil retail is still at a high level. In the increasingly fierce market competition, the preferential policies of gas stations are also more diverse and flexible. At present, the mainstream discounts at major stations such as Sinopec and PetroChina are 0.3-1 yuan/liter, and sometimes the discounts exceed 1 yuan/liter in remote and border areas; the price advantage of social gas stations still exists, and the discounts at some local refinery retail stations can reach up to 1 yuan/liter. About 2 yuan/liter.
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