According to SunSirs price monitoring,2022 year6month23In the daily commodity price increase and decrease list, there are a total of 2 commodities in the textile sector that have increased month-on-month, and the top 2 span>‘s products are dried cocoons(1.48%) and raw silk(0.60%). A total of 8 commodities dropped month-on-month. The top 3 commodities were polyesterPOY(-3.51%), polyesterDTY(-3.42%), polyesterFDY(-2.11% ). The average daily increase or decrease was -0.52%.
Recently, the Internet celebrity raw material PTA in the textile and chemical fiber market has once again stood at the forefront. Since the Dragon Boat Festival, PTAThe market price has risen rapidly and significantly. In just one week, the cumulative increase has exceeded 900 yuan/ tons. An increase of 13.50%. But the good times did not last long. As the main contract of PTA was suddenly suppressed last Friday, 10 fell sharply day and night. 238 points, 3.15% once again shocked the industry.
PTA As the big brother of raw materials, as the second largest variety of commodity futures trading, every move affects the entire upstream and downstream industries. Such sharp rises and falls have also made the textile and chemical fiber market extremely entangled. After the thunderstorm, will the market continue to surge forward or will it turn back?
PTA: The absolute price has dropped 700 points due to the early period PX has fallen rapidly, and the processing fees have been fluctuating recently. The factory buying momentum is strong this Friday, and the basis remains at around 185. Overall, TAdue to its oligopoly structure, liquidity is severely controlled and absolute prices are supported. From the cost side, crude oil is currently falling from its high level. However, the view that high oil prices inhibit travel demand has not yet been falsified, and short-term forecasts are still high and volatile. PX fell 30 dollars yesterday, PX Price support is anchored in the strong demand for refined oil products. Since pricing power lies in Japan and South Korea, there is still support in the short term. Fuhua’s 45010,000-ton unit has achieved a load of 3. Under high processing costs, the supply side has recovered significantly and compressed At the same time, processing fees will follow the fluctuations of crude oil in the short term.
PXThe sharp fall became the trigger, but it was more of a short-term adjustment
As the main raw material of PTAPX, due to the tight supply and demand of crude oil itself and the influence of geographical factors, Market prices continue to rise. Among them, the unexpected loss of PX equipment in Japan and South Korea coincided with the peak travel season in the United States, and the decline in gasoline inventories stimulated a sharp rise in PX equipment. During the Dragon Boat Festival, crude oil broke through 120USD again since 3 months, PXOn the first day after the Dragon Boat Festival, prices rose by more than 12% compared with before the holiday. Top-down pressure on the cost side is gradually advancing.
The biggest factor that caused the 10dayPTA plunge was PX’s quotation has experienced a large drop. It is understood that with the decline in naphtha prices, 10 JapanPX fell sharply from the previous day86USD/tons, estimated at 1413USD/tonsCFR. PX, which had surged in the early stage, fell sharply and returned directly to the price of 6 days, makingSome bulls in the market were suppressed.
Since the middle and late days of 5, PXN has continued at a high level, exceeding 400+ drives the domestic PX equipment to rapidly increase its load, even if the domestic PTADevices declined to avoid risks, but overseas demand was strong. PXN continued to maintain an upward momentum. During the period, PTA processing fees Intermittent recovery has occurred, reaching the 300-400 yuan/ ton range, but the raw material side has risen rapidly and significantly. , PTAprocessing fees have entered the negative range again since 3months.
Raw materials are still likely to rise again, but the downstream industry is still weak.
Upstream raw materials still have the possibility of rising again, but looking at the downstream, it is still difficult to conceal the weak situation.
In the early stage, market demand was weak, and polyester filament manufacturers had no intention of following up on price adjustments. As cash flow losses worsened, polyester filament manufacturers had to speed up their pace and follow upstream price adjustments.
At present, most weaving factories still report that new orders are scarce, the market transaction atmosphere is deserted, and the inventory pressure of gray fabrics in factories is high. In addition, the price of polyester yarn, the upstream textile raw material, continues to rise, and downstream profits are significantly compressed, so orders are particularly cautious. Orders are relatively low, and the operating rate of weaving factories continues to run at a low level. Currently, the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 57.00%, down from last week5.40%. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the current market is still in a relatively difficult stage.
In addition, considering that although it is difficult for the market to undertake a rapid and substantial increase, there is no significant decline expected in the short term for weaving and polyester. Due to rigid demand support, it is still relatively stable. It is expected that market prices will remain stable and strong, or there may be a short-term correction window. , the far end will further heat up or decrease with the back channel negative feedback, or there may be expectations of weakening.
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