On June 24, Zheng Mian continued to decline sharply, falling below the important Wanqi mark. It fell by nearly 3,000 points in just one month. It is rare for such a large drop to occur in a short period of time.
Recently, the United States and Europe have released manufacturing data. The initial value of the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the United States in June was 52.4, a low in the past two years, and was expected to be 56; the initial value of the service industry PMI was 51.6, and the expected value was 53.5; the initial value of the Comprehensive PMI was 51.2, and was expected to be 56. 52.9. The initial value of the euro zone’s manufacturing PMI in June was 52, a new low in 22 months, and was expected to be 53.9; the initial value of the services PMI in June was 52.8, a new low in five months, and was expected to be 55.5.
The unsatisfactory performance of manufacturing data in the United States and Europe, coupled with the substantial interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe, has aroused market investors’ concerns about economic recession, leading to pessimistic expectations for future demand. For example, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said: “The Federal Reserve cannot affect oil prices, nor can it affect energy supply. We believe that we need to start from the demand side.” At the same time, market speculation is that as U.S. President Biden plans to visit the Middle East, OPEC+ will It may insist on increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day to alleviate soaring oil prices and inflationary pressures, forcing crude oil prices, which are in tight supply, to undergo continuous adjustments.
Against the background of the overall macro trend being under pressure, domestic and foreign cotton fell in resonance on the 24th and continued to hit new lows. The main US cotton ICE contract fell below 100 cents. The early market speculation ultimately failed to sustain it for too long. U.S. cotton speculation will have to wait until July and August, and market shorts still have time to operate. The domestic cotton market is already in a state of turmoil. How long will the trend of continuous decline continue? Analysts from cotton analysts in this market indicate that the long positions in the cotton industry or the market have not stopped their losses, and the decline may continue. Only when the long positions are stopped and the losses are cleared, the short market may come to an end. In addition, it should be noted that the warehouse receipt cotton on Zheng Cotton is already the cheapest cotton in the market, and the quantity of warehouse receipts is at a low level. If the bulls receive the goods, whether the shorts can deliver the goods in sufficient quantity is also critical to the market rebound.
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