Yesterday, stock investors once again increased their positions in oil stocks, and Libya also ushered in a new crisis.
The latest documents disclosed yesterday morning showed that Buffett’s investment company Berkshire Hathaway once again increased its holdings of Occidental Petroleum shares on June 23, buying a total of 794,000 shares at a price of US$55.39-56.09 per share. The investment is about US$44 million, equivalent to about 300 million yuan.
Just last week, Occidental Petroleum’s stock price hit a low of $54.30 in the past month (May 27-June 27). “Stock God” Buffett took advantage of the opportunity to accurately buy the bottom. He added positions multiple times on June 17 and June 22, and once bought at a price of US$54.96. In the end, a total of 9.5 million shares were purchased, costing approximately US$530 million, equivalent to approximately 3.5 billion yuan.
After this latest transaction on June 23, Berkshire Hathaway held a total of 153.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum. Based on the latest closing price of US$58.90, the shareholding value was approximately US$9 billion, equivalent to approximately 602 RMB. billion.
Some investment banks also believe that Buffett will acquire all the shares of the oil company.
Investment bank Truist Securities previously issued a report stating that once Occidental Petroleum’s credit situation improves, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may acquire all of its shares.
Does the stock god’s keenness to increase his position in oil stocks mean that oil prices are still low?
Dong Dandan, chief executive of CITIC Futures Energy and Chemicals, told reporters that Buffett’s long position in oil stocks may be because he sees that global petrochemical resources will not increase much in the next few years. The main reason currently restricting large-scale investment in crude oil and coal is not that the price of crude oil is not high enough, but the concern that global carbon neutrality requirements will gradually increase in the next few years, electric vehicles will develop rapidly, and oil demand will face a turning point. At present, the crude oil market is in a stage where supply increase is limited and demand continues to rise. Oil prices may remain high in the next few years, for example, between 90 and 110 US dollars per barrel, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of oil companies.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, believes that Buffett’s purpose in buying Occidental Petroleum is obviously to be optimistic about the company’s development prospects, which to some extent also means that he is optimistic about oil prices. Considering that the supply side of the crude oil market is relatively fragile, it is inevitable that When there is a mismatch between supply and demand, the future energy transformation process also requires energy prices to remain at a relatively high level and have investment value.
CITIC Futures analyst Yang Jiaming told reporters that in the long term, oil company stock prices are positively correlated with crude oil prices. Rather than saying he is optimistic about stock companies, he is more optimistic about oil prices. In the past year, oil prices have been driven by rising oil prices, and the stocks of oilfield service companies have continued to rise. Of course, this includes the oil companies themselves using a large amount of cash flow to repurchase stocks.
Libya’s “situation is very serious” and major ports may be blocked in the next three days! Oil prices at home and abroad “change”
On June 27, the Libyan National Oil Company stated that due to the worsening political crisis, Libyan authorities may block exports from the Gulf of Sirte within the next three days. Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Brega and Zueitina along the Gulf of Sirte are all major ports for oil exports.
According to a statement on June 27, the Libyan National Oil Company said it may announce within 72 hours that it will stop shipments due to force majeure. This is a permissible term in the contract.
Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, said no individual or official should be allowed to use the oil sector as a bargaining chip. “The situation is very serious, the Sirte region has been closed and some people are trying to demonize the oil sector,” Sanalla said.
Affected by this, international oil prices stopped falling and turned up during the session on Monday. During Tuesday night trading, U.S. oil cloth once rose by more than 2%. As of press time, the increase has declined.
In the domestic futures market, SC crude oil rose by more than 5% at yesterday’s midday close, and fuel oil rose by nearly 3%.
As for the surge in domestic crude oil varieties yesterday, Li Yunxu, a crude oil researcher at SDIC Essence Futures, said that in terms of fuel oil, the lack of Russian refining capacity has intensified the volatility of the overseas refined oil market. Russia’s fuel oil supply is abundant and the global primary operating rate is relatively high. High-sulfur cracking Price differential pressure continues. The low-sulfur fuel oil crack spread remains on the strong side against the background of high overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads, and it is mainly necessary to guard against high volatility risks after consecutive new highs. At present, the inability of oil prices to rise has been basically confirmed. Looking at the market outlook, although Russian production will continue to decline during the year, it is inevitable that Saudi Arabia and the United States will still have large room for improvement in production during the transition period. The far-end gap is also expected to be relatively limited, and inventory is low. It is not advisable to be too bearish before the supply is accelerated. During this round of absolute price decline, the monthly spread and crack spread have been relatively strong, and the fundamentals are hard to say. The current price is expected to be at the center of the high and wide oscillation range in the third quarter. At the following position, pay attention to the stabilization rhythm of macro sentiment.
Talking about the current fundamentals of the oil market, Dong Dandan said that the current supply and demand of crude oil is still tight. India bought Russian crude oil on a large scale, and European countries began to seek crude oil resources in the Middle East. The global crude oil market realized some adjustments. Russia’s oil supply remained stable at 10.55 million barrels per day, down 850,000 barrels per day from before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. , this decline is currently expected to remain stable until the end of 2022. When the EU imposes sanctions on Russian oil at the end of 2022, Russian supply may be further reduced by then.
“Previously, the G7 had wanted to set a price ceiling for Russian crude oil. In fact, the price ceiling was set because it did not want the supply of Russian crude oil to decline further, which would lead to a further contraction of the global oil market. Simply setting a price ceiling would be difficult to operate. Larger. About 95% of the world’s tanker fleet is insured through the International Association of Protection and Indemnity Clubs (IGF) in London and some companies in continental Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has slowly provided guarantees through the Russian State Reinsurance Company, The IGF may have less room to play. Russian Urals oil currently has a discount of US$34/barrel to Brent, which has fallen sharply from the discount of US$1.5/barrel before the conflict. It is difficult and not difficult to set an export cap for Russian crude oil prices. What impact may it have on the supply and demand of the crude oil market? Dong Dandan said.
“Looking ahead to the market outlook, both oil prices and stock prices will be under pressure against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to curb inflation, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, and Biden’s quest for U.S. oil companies to increase production,” Yang Jiaming said.
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