01 The epidemic has returned again in Anhui, Nanjing and other places
A local COVID-19 cluster epidemic occurred in Si County, Anhui Province, and has spread to Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province. The source of infection is still unclear. The positive people are involved in schools, funerals and other gathering places. Community transmission is widespread and the risk of spillover is high.
Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in Anhui, the air defense offices of various regions sounded the alarm again yesterday, and began to urge various regions to conduct piecemeal checks to see if there were any cases from Anhui. Unexpectedly, the epidemic that had been dormant for many days reared its head again!
It is said that high temperature can kill viruses? Is it said that hot weather is not conducive to the spread of the virus? now……
Is this virus too powerful and cunning?
As of the 28th, a total of 29 new cases were confirmed in Anhui. The entire Si County was under closed management, and Nanjing was upgraded to medium risk.
On June 28, Lei Zhenglong, deputy director of the National Health Commission’s Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention and first-level inspector, stated at a press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council that the BA.4 and BA.5 strains have recently been discovered in imported cases overseas. , and there are signs of increasing numbers, we must be highly vigilant about the overseas import and spread of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5.
A number of international authoritative journals have published serological studies on Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, and unanimously confirmed that Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes exhibit stronger immune evasion capabilities.
A long sigh, when will the end of dealing with this ever-escalating virus come to an end?
02
Cotton futures fluctuate greatly, textile companies are closed and waiting for clarity
According to the survey, affected by the sharp plunge in Zheng cotton since June 15, cotton spot quotations and fixed prices have plummeted, while downstream weaving, fabric, clothing and other companies have also lowered the price of cotton yarn (using real-time Xinjiang cotton The price is calculated based on the raw material cost of cotton spinning mills). A large number of cotton spinning mills directly close the market and do not quote external prices. If the customer has a solid order, the price can be negotiated. At present, the fluctuation range of cotton futures is relatively large, or it may be greatly affected by external markets, news, etc. Frequent adjustments to quotations are not conducive to receiving orders in the future. The cotton textile industry chain is relatively long, profits are limited, and there is not much room for price reduction. Facing the short-term sharp drop in raw material prices, we can only close the market and wait for further clarity on the market situation.
It is understood that despite the sharp fall in cotton prices in June, the initial victory in domestic epidemic prevention and control, and the comprehensive recovery of logistics and transportation in various places, textile enterprises and the light textile market generally reported that cotton yarn inquiries and shipments continued to be light, and the market was not active. A 50,000-spindle spinning company in Zibo, Shandong Province said that the accumulation rate of pure cotton yarn and blended yarn has been rising in the past half month. The company has taken measures to limit production. In the future, as long as the profit from production and sales can be flat or within an acceptable loss range, , companies still tend to take orders, start up operations, and not reduce staff.
03 Polyester production cuts, PTA falls sharply
In the past half month, PTA has experienced a thrilling and continuous decline, and even set a shocking 11 consecutive knees in one fell swoop!
This drop has stunned the entire market, stunned all the bosses, and even made those who were hoarding goods cry!
According to analysis by analysts at Guotai Junan: Under the production reduction plan of major polyester manufacturers, the PTA trade structure has begun to transform. According to the production reduction plan announced by the polyester factory, the overall production reduction scale is expected to increase from 10% to 30%, which means a further 20% production reduction (4.2 million tons of production capacity). The operating rate of the polyester unit in July is expected to drop by 3%. PTA’s early depletion expectations turned into accumulation, and futures traders closed their hedging positions one after another. Supply pressure on the spot side has increased. In terms of basis, the current basis remains around 210 yuan/ton, but transactions are light. The deterioration of the trade structure has caused the short-term trend of pta to be weak.
PTA unit long shutdown and maintenance capacity statistics table:
There is not much PTA in circulation. In terms of demand, downstream polyester factories have poor production and sales, and are not very enthusiastic about PTA spot purchases. Overall, after the continuous decline in oil prices, there is support and weak rebound demand, but it is difficult to return to the upward trend. The decline of PTA has slowed down. It is expected that the PTA market may fluctuate widely in the near future due to the game of supply, demand and cost.
The virus changes too fast, and the epidemic has once again sounded the alarm. After Xinjiang cotton, textile companies have a long road ahead, polyester production is reduced, and PTA is falling into a bottomless pit?
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to cancel the asterisk mark, and the national prevention and control also notified that it will reduce the quarantine time such as entry. The tourism industry has begun to fully explode, and terminal demand has gradually recovered. In the long-short game, who is more powerful? Is it the supply side or the demand side? Who wins and who loses?
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