The July global production demand forecast released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) believes that the current cotton market is in a rare stable period in the process of ups and downs.
In 2021/22, global cotton production and consumption are basically unchanged compared to previous months. Only Australian cotton production for this year and next year has been slightly increased, with month-on-month increases of 119,000 tons and 41,000 tons respectively. Global cotton production is 25.91 million tons, consumption is stable at 26.15 million tons, and the supply and demand gap is 240,000 tons. The export volume was 10.09 million tons, both unchanged, and the ending inventory was 20.37 million tons, an increase of 119,000 tons from the previous month.
In 2022/23, the global opening inventory is 20.37 million tons, an increase of 119,000 tons from the previous month. The output is expected to be 26.21 million tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous month. The consumption volume is 26.08 million tons, and the export volume is 10.04 million tons. There is no change from the previous month. The ending inventory was 20.51 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month.
ICAC believes that under the influence of the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the current relatively stable state of the cotton market will not last long. If the global food crisis really comes, the cotton industry will face more serious consequences. Similar to historical situations, food shortages have the most prominent impact on African countries. During the 2007-2008 famine, cotton area decreased and production declined in Africa, particularly in Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, with the impact of production decline continuing into the 2011/12 season.
In view of the excessive variables and unknown factors faced by the cotton market, ICAC has suspended the publication of price forecasts.
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