Introduction
In the first half of 2022, the domestic PTA market will show an upward trend. The average price in the first half of 2022 was 6,139 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%. In the second half of the year, with the planned commissioning of new equipment and weak demand, where should the market go?
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In the first half of 2022, the 2# PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials was successfully put into operation. As of now, the domestic PTA production capacity is 67.805 million tons. However, there are still 12.5 million tons of equipment planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PTA overcapacity has become an industry consensus. If the new device is successfully put into operation in the second half of the year, the production capacity will be approximately 80.305 million tons, an increase of 18.44%. However, it is not ruled out that under cost pressure, there is a risk of delay in the commissioning of new equipment, and the operating rate of existing enterprises may remain at low load.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In the first half of 2022, domestic polyester production capacity increased by 1.85 million tons. As of now, domestic polyester production capacity is 69.175 million tons. It is understood that there are still 4.08 million tons of new equipment planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year. It can be seen that domestic polyester production capacity will continue to grow, and domestic polyester production capacity will exceed 73.255 million tons by then. If the device is put into operation smoothly, 1.75 million tons of PTA may be consumed in the second half of the year. However, judging from the increase in PTA, it is still insufficient. For now, the substantive demand for downstream polyester and end-use textiles is increasing slowly, and inventories in all links of the industrial chain remain high, making it difficult for demand to increase further.
Facing the Chinese PTA market in the second half of 2022, the cost side is still the main factor affecting price fluctuations. The combination of geopolitics and seasonal demand amplification will intensify the expected supply gap in the crude oil market. Oil prices may remain high in the third quarter and may moderately fall after the fourth quarter; the cost side provides slightly solid support for PTA. From the perspective of supply and demand, after the new PTA equipment is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply may increase significantly. However, the demand for downstream polyester and terminal textiles increases slowly, while inventories in all links of the industrial chain remain high. Therefore, the overall supply and demand structure has limited support. It is expected that the PTA market will first strengthen and then weaken along with the cost side in the second half of 2022.
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