In the traditional textile off-season, raw material prices have begun to decline in April in previous years. However, this year, supported by high costs, they violated seasonal rules and continued to rise in the second quarter. Under the background of high cost and low demand, raw material prices have fallen across the board since June, but textile companies are not buying it. Not only are there no large-scale and centralized replenishment of raw materials, but pessimism continues to spread, and it is not uncommon for some small textile companies to reduce or suspend production.
According to feedback from textile factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, since mid-to-late June, the order volume of printing and dyeing companies in Suzhou, Changzhou, Shaoxing and other places is still relatively low, and the operating rate is generally 60-70%. This shows that the end users of clothing and fabrics Ordering is still not ideal. Some netizens said, “Weak demand affects the whole world, not just one country.” Some even said, “If the whole world is in bad shape, it will naturally fall flat.”
Is this really the case? We might as well take a look at some recent developments in our neighboring countries.
The data is eye-catching!
The export growth rate of Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea is still gratifying!
It is understood that the reality is not as pessimistic as everyone imagined. The actual situation is not only that the world is not flat, but also that the import and export situation has risen against the trend. At present, the export data of many countries and regions such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea have increased, and the GDP growth rate in some regions is even more alarming.
1. Vietnam: Exports increased by 16.4% year-on-year in May, and the economic growth rate exceeded 5.03%
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam, in May this year, Vietnam’s total import and export volume was US$63.54 billion. Total exports reached US$30.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; total imports were US$32.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, continuing double-digit growth. Vietnam’s trade deficit in May was US$1.73 billion, compared with expectations for a surplus of US$400 million.
In the first five months of this year, Vietnam’s total import and export volume reached US$306.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with a net increase of US$42.2 billion. Among them, exports were US$153.3 billion, an increase of 16.7% (a net increase of US$21.94 billion), and imports were US$152.86 billion, an increase of 15.3% (a net increase of US$20.26 billion).
In the first quarter of 2022, Vietnam’s GDP reached US$92.175 billion, and its economic growth rate reached 5.03%, which was higher than China’s 4.8% growth rate and Singapore’s 3.4% growth rate in the same period. In the first quarter, Vietnam’s total import and export volume was US$176.3 billion, equivalent to 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 14%. This is an important driving force for its GDP growth and also directly drives the growth of the manufacturing industry.
2. Indonesia: Exports in May increased by 27% year-on-year, with a surplus for 25 consecutive months
The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s total export value in May 2022 at US$21.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Against the background of global energy shortage, Indonesia, as a major energy exporter, continues to see significant growth in its oil and gas exports.
In May, the export of oil and gas products was US$1.50 billion, accounting for 6.96%, a month-on-month increase of 4.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.49%. Non-oil and natural gas exports were US$20.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.34%. Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$2.9 billion in May, marking its 25th consecutive month of trade surplus.
3. India: Exports in May increased by 15.46% year-on-year
Due to rising prices of commodities including crude oil and edible oil, India’s trade deficit reached US$23.33 billion in May. In terms of exports, India’s merchandise exports in May reached US$37.29 billion, an increase of 15.46% compared with the same period last year. In terms of imports, India imported US$60.62 billion in goods in May, an increase of 56.14% compared with the same period last year.
In May, India’s imports of crude oil products increased by 91.6% compared with the same period last year, and coal imports increased by more than 100%.
4. Cambodia: Exports in the first five months increased by 34.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate far exceeded that of South Africa.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of Cambodia, from January to May this year, Cambodia’s total exports reached US$9.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%; of which, exports of clothing, shoes and travel supplies reached US$5.2 billion, accounting for 55% of total exports.
From January to May this year, Cambodia’s international trade totaled US$22.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, of which exports were US$9.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, a growth rate far exceeding that of South Africa. Cambodia’s clothing and footwear industry accounts for the highest proportion of exports. In the past five months, clothing exports exceeded US$3.642 billion and footwear exports exceeded US$702 million.
5. Japan: Exports in May increased by 15.8% year-on-year, the 15th consecutive month of growth
The May trade statistics flash report released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance stated that Japan’s exports increased by 15.8% during the same period to 7,252.1 billion yen. Japan’s exports rose 15.8% year-on-year in May, the 15th consecutive month of growth, driven by strong overseas demand for steel and fossil fuels. Among them, Japan’s exports of steel, mineral fuels, semiconductors and electronic components increased significantly that month.
Japan’s import volume in May increased by 48.9% year-on-year to 9,636.7 billion yen, and the monthly import volume exceeded the 9 trillion yen mark for the first time. In terms of categories, crude oil increased by 147.2% year-on-year, coal increased by 267.7%, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 154.7%.
6. South Korea: Exports increased by 21.3% year-on-year in May, maintaining growth momentum for 19 consecutive months.
The “Import and Export Trends in May” report released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea shows that South Korea’s export volume was US$61.52 billion, an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year, a record high for the same period in history, and exports have maintained growth for 19 consecutive months. The export growth rate that month has exceeded that of Vietnam, and South Korea’s single-month export volume has also increased after March (63.8 billion U.S. dollars).It broke the US$60 billion mark again after two months.
Exports of steel, petrochemicals, semiconductors and other products hit a record high for the same period in history, with double-digit increases. Among them, semiconductor exports increased by 14.9% to US$11.61 billion, exceeding US$10 billion for 13 consecutive months. Thanks to increased demand for servers, memory chips increased 10.8% to US$7.28 billion, maintaining growth momentum for 21 consecutive months.
7. Turkey: Exports increased by 15.2% year-on-year in May, and the deficit hit a new high
Data released by the Turkish Ministry of Trade show that in May this year, Turkey’s exports were approximately US$19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; imports were approximately US$29.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%. In May this year, Turkey’s trade deficit reached a record high of $10.7 billion, a figure that increased 157% compared with the same period last year.
It is reported that raw materials accounted for the largest proportion of Turkey’s imports in May. Turkey’s exports in May this year set a record for Turkey’s May exports in history. From January to May this year, Turkey’s exports reached US$102.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; imports reached US$145.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%. From January to May this year, Turkey’s trade deficit was US$43.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 136%.
8. Malaysia: Exports increased by 20.7% year-on-year, achieving double-digit export growth for the ninth consecutive month
Data from Malaysia’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry showed that exports in April increased by 20.7% year-on-year to 127.49 billion ringgit, achieving double-digit growth for the ninth consecutive month. Imports increased by 22% year-on-year to 103.95 billion ringgit.
Imports in April increased by 0.9% month-on-month, and the trade surplus for that month was 23.55 billion ringgit (approximately US$5.36 billion). Exports to China in April increased by 12.4% year-on-year, reaching 17.36 billion ringgit. Exports to the United States increased by 18.1% year-on-year to 14.35 billion ringgit.
9. Philippines: The trade deficit continues to rise, and exports increase by 6% year-on-year.
The Philippines’ national statistics agency said the Philippines recorded a trade deficit of $4.8 billion in April as imports continued to grow at double-digit rates. Philippines imports in April increased by 22.8% year-on-year to US$10.9 billion; exports increased by 6.0% to US$6.1 billion. In April, exports increased by 6% year-on-year, and imports increased by 22.8% year-on-year.
Xinjiang cotton ban enters Asia, orders fly “southeast”
my country’s small and medium-sized manufacturing industries are under pressure
In addition to the bright year-on-year data, orders from Vietnam and other Southeast Asian regions have been scheduled until around October this year, and most of them are purchase orders from Europe and the United States. This is closely related to the level of epidemic prevention and import and export policies in Southeast Asia. Most of last year’s “returning” orders have now been lost, and funds have also gone into the pockets of countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia.
At the same time, according to a medium-sized weaving factory in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, the company’s comprehensive operation rate of rapier and air-jet looms is currently around 60%, and the consumption of cotton yarn is only 35-40% of the peak period of the previous two years. There are few orders for cotton gray fabrics, and there are more short-term orders and small orders. On the other hand, the impact of the United States and the European Union’s escalation of the Xinjiang cotton ban is still fermenting. The industry must not only observe and understand how the U.S. Customs and Border Protection traces its origins and enforces the standards, but also Think about how to provide evidence standards to foreign buyers. According to foreign reports, Bangladesh’s clothing exports to the United States may be hit due to the United States’ restrictions on related goods from China’s Xinjiang region. Prior to this, the Bangladesh Garment Buyers Association (BGBA) issued a directive asking its members to be cautious about sourcing raw materials from the Xinjiang region.
According to a statement from the BGBA, the Indo-Pacific Opportunities Project regional assessment mission funded by the US Agency for International Development notified the BGBA that any clothing produced in Bangladesh cannot enter the United States if it is produced with fabric imported from Xinjiang cotton. If products are found to be in any way related to Xinjiang cotton, these products will be confiscated. If confiscated, exporters will not receive their payments.
It is reported that the delegation also held a meeting with the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA). The Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) said manufacturers are closely monitoring the issue and many of them have found alternatives to imported yarns and fabrics. Domestic knitting manufacturers can source yarn and fabric from the local market, while woven manufacturers that meet most of their fabric needs through imports may face some challenges. However, Bangladeshi cotton mills mainly import raw cotton from African countries, India and the United States, so they will not face any challenges.
Having seen the popularity in overseas countries, let’s compare it to the severe domestic situation. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s exports grew by 3.9% year-on-year in April, a sharp decrease from 14.7% in the previous month. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5 in March, 47.4 in April, and 49.6 in May, all below the boom-bust line of 50. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry is worrying. Nearly 52% of small and medium-sized manufacturing companies in the Pearl River Delta region believe that the impact of this round of epidemic on business operations is more serious. Among them, declining orders, insufficient raw materials, supply interruptions from upstream companies, excessive labor cost burdens, and customer arrears are the most prominent ones. Performance.
Half of the companies believe that the current epidemic has a more serious impact on operations than two years ago. Specifically, 55% of companies said that orders this year have decreased year-on-year. About 48% of companies said that without additional financing, existing funds can be maintained for less than one quarter, including about 16% of companies that can only be maintained for one month.
Whether it is Japan, South Korea, or Southeast Asia, the recent export trade and GDP growth rates have shown gratifying data, which is in sharp contrast to my country’s current lukewarm demand and order shortage. Some domestic companies blindly believe that the current situation is not optimistic and that everyone in the world is not optimistic. If they are flat, they think everyone will be flat. This kind of thinking inevitably exposes the feeling of deceiving oneself and deceiving others.
With additional financing, existing funds can last for less than one quarter, including about 16% of companies that can only last for one month.
Whether it is Japan, South Korea, or Southeast Asia, the recent export trade and GDP growth rates have shown gratifying data, which is in sharp contrast to my country’s current lukewarm demand and order shortage. Some domestic companies blindly believe that the current situation is not optimistic and that everyone in the world is not optimistic. If they are flat, they think everyone will be flat. This kind of thinking inevitably exposes the feeling of deceiving oneself and deceiving others.
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