On the 13th, the PTA futures contract fell almost across the board and ran at a low level on the 14th. The main force fell by 3.78% to 5,444 yuan. The collapse of the cost side and the negative feedback of demand are the core drivers of current PTA market transactions. Under pressure from costs and supply and demand, short fiber prices fell by 2.89%.
The U.S. CPI data for June once again exploded. The market believes that a 75 basis point interest rate hike is a certain event. The pace of interest rate hikes continues to increase and liquidity tightening continues to put pressure on the market. During the decline in oil prices, PX has fallen even more. Although PXN has fallen sharply from a high point of close to US$700 to the current price of around US$340, it has fallen by 50%. Profits are transferred from the PX link to the PTA link, and PTA spot processing fees are further increased. PTA has shifted from low construction and low profit status in the early stage to medium and high construction. Although PTA underwent maintenance in July, it was unable to withstand the downstream production cuts.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Recently, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption is at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power restriction notices, exacerbating the negative impact on the consumer side. feedback. Recently, some polyester companies and downstream textile printing and dyeing companies in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Haining and other places in Zhejiang have received notices of power cuts. A large polyester bottle flake manufacturer in East China with an annual output of 1.2 million tons has recently reduced production by 30% due to power cuts. Moreover, polyester companies also plan to continue to reduce production by 10% to 15% in the near future, that is, to expand the scale of production reduction on the basis of the original 30% production reduction.
At present, the operating rate of downstream weaving and texturing is only about 50%. If the power supply declines further due to power restrictions, it will be difficult to see a turnaround in upstream polyester sales in the short term, and the pressure of high inventory will still be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, short fiber supply and demand support is also insufficient.
Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side.
In addition, although PTA maintains a high basis, there is less spot circulation, and traders’ inventories are low, the market has been unable to bear the current high price of PTA. Except for a few traders and factories, the market demand for replenishment is weak. On the 13th, relevant people in the industry reported that some leading PTA companies began to dump goods on the market this week and registered warehouse receipts on futures, which put greater pressure on the market.
Chen Sheng, an analyst at Guomao Futures, believes that in the context of a sharp drop in absolute prices, it is difficult for spot prices to survive solely on the strength of large manufacturers. If the logic of the industrial chain changes from high prices in the first half of the year to suppress demand to low prices in the second half to stimulate demand. , PTA prices may return to the ‘4 era’.
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