In terms of international oil prices, after Tuesday’s plunge, U.S. oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, but fell again on Thursday afternoon, falling nearly 3% in the evening. In the domestic market, fuel oil prices closed down 4.04% at midday on Thursday, ranking third on the decline list.
During the night session, WTI crude oil fell 6.00%, and Brent crude oil fell 5.25%. The main fuel contract fell more than 7%. As of press time, the decline in U.S. oil prices has narrowed.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, told reporters that the sharp drop in oil prices on Tuesday has severely dampened market confidence, and oil prices face the risk of breaking out at the lower edge of the range. Although OPEC and IEA both reminded in their monthly reports that market supply is still tight, the response of oil prices can be It can be seen that the market mentality has become very cautious. Although the European energy crisis in winter still seems to be an attractive subject of speculation, judging from the current global economic situation and the supply and demand outlook of the crude oil market, it is obvious that the direction of oil prices is once again expected to be in the lead. before reality.
Talking about the impact of the previous day’s U.S. inflation data on crude oil, Yang An believed that the U.S. CPI data in June once again exploded, and the market believed that a 75 basis point interest rate hike was a certain event, and the market was even trading a 100 basis point interest rate hike in July. And the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September, the pace of interest rate increases continues to put pressure on the market.
“U.S. President Biden commented that the U.S. inflation data in June was unacceptably high. In fact, since the U.S. CPI data in May exceeded market expectations, the commodity market began a new round of plunge. With the U.S. CPI data in June Continuing to exceed expectations, the domestic industrial products index on Wednesday night refreshed the low of the sharp decline in October last year. Compared with October last year, the macro environment has been significantly negative for the market, which will also become an important pressure on oil prices. EIA’s latest weekly release Data show that both crude oil and refined oil inventories are higher than expected, and the very poor demand data further dampens the confidence of bulls. Faced with such a situation, it is extremely difficult for oil prices to reverse the decline, and the current situation is not suitable for chasing increases.” Yang An said.
Talking about the fundamentals of the future crude oil market, Chen Tong, an analyst at Yide Futures, said that the crude oil market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. In the third quarter, as demand in Asia’s travel and industrial sectors continues to recover, non-OECD will drive the growth of global oil demand, and oil inventories are expected to show a downward trend; in the fourth quarter, as the growth rate of oil demand begins to slow down, North American and OPEC production will decline. Gradually returning, oil inventories are expected to rebound from lows, but there is still a large gap compared with normal inventory levels before the epidemic. The operating center of Brent crude oil prices in the second half of the year is expected to be US$100 per barrel. However, on the one hand, the global economic recession is expected to continue to heat up, and the decline in market risk appetite will cause crude oil to encounter greater selling pressure. On the other hand, the low global oil inventory coupled with the geopolitical risk premium may continue to exist. Under the game of macro and micro factors, crude oil prices Volatility may intensify.
Specific to varieties, Chen Tong looks forward to the trend of low-sulfur fuel oil in the second half of the year: “In terms of low-sulfur, high oil prices inhibit the growth of terminal demand to a certain extent, but strong freight prices drive shipowners to arrange more voyages. Shipowners are working hard to ensure that there is enough of marine fuel oil to ensure that they can cope with the strong freight market, marine fuel oil demand is mainly stable. As the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil remains limited across the European market, arbitrage cargo inflows from the West do not increase significantly in the short term. signs, coupled with high freight costs, make arbitrage activities unattractive, so the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore remains tight. In terms of high sulfur, with the advent of high temperatures in summer, power generation demand from South Asian countries has rapidly rebounded, including Pakistan and Bangladesh. The purchase of high-sulfur fuel oil for power generation will be increased. Saudi Arabia usually increases its imports of high-sulfur fuel oil in the summer to meet the needs of power and desalination plants, and the supply and demand situation in Singapore’s high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to stabilize and improve.”
Yang An believes that considering that the commodity market does show signs of short-term oversold, some varieties may undergo a technical rebound, and changes in market sentiment will also affect the rhythm of oil prices. In the short-term, oil prices are supported by low levels in the key range, and bulls have no way to retreat. It is expected that there will be a game, and the effects of Biden’s trip to the Middle East will continue to impact the market in the next two days. Judging from the current situation facing the market, the global epidemic situation is becoming increasingly severe. Both the macro and demand perspectives continue to put pressure on the market. The tight supply side is the last position for bulls to rely on. If the supply and demand levels deteriorate, it will be difficult for crude oil prices to maintain the high price zone in the later period. .
</p
