In the night trading of July 15, domestic commodity futures rose broadly, reversing the downward trend in the day’s trading. As of the close of the night, the main cotton contract rose by 7.74%, and the far-month contract rose by the limit across the board. The main cotton yarn, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts rose by more than 5%, the main SC crude oil contract rose by more than 4%, and PTA, palm oil, and short-term contracts rose by more than 5%. The main contracts of fiber, Shanghai tin and soybean oil rose more than 3%.
In the external market, U.S. cotton rose by the daily limit, up 5.97%, London lead rose more than 6%, London nickel and London zinc rose more than 3%, and Brent crude oil rose more than 2%.
U.S. retail sales in June, known as “horror data,” unexpectedly rose 1% month-on-month, indicating that consumer spending remains stable. In addition, the July consumer inflation expectations for next year released by the University of Michigan dropped from 5.3% to 5.2%, and the confidence index also rebounded from 50 in June to 51.1, which was also better than market expectations.
U.S. President Biden meets with Saudi King and Crown Prince
On July 15, local time, US President Biden began his visit to Saudi Arabia. He met with Saudi King Salman that evening and later held talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
After the talks, Biden said in a speech that he and Saudi Arabia discussed energy issues and the importance of providing necessary crude oil and products for the international market, and looked forward to taking practical measures to resolve related issues. Biden also said that the United States agreed to establish a partnership with Saudi Arabia on cooperation in areas such as 5G technology and clean energy, and expressed support for Saudi Arabia’s decision to open its airspace to all civil aviation flights that meet the conditions.
During the meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince, the two sides also talked about the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi.
According to plan, Biden will attend the “Security and Development” Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with leaders of many Middle Eastern countries on the 16th.
The European Commission announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on the import of gold from Russia
The European Commission announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 15th, including measures such as banning the import of gold from Russia, strengthening dual-use military and civilian and high-end technology export controls, but did not involve the closely watched natural gas field.
According to a press announcement issued by the European Commission that day, this sanctions package, called “maintenance and adjustment”, aims to maintain and strengthen the effectiveness of the six rounds of sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia. The latest sanctions package proposes to extend the current sanctions against Russia for six months until January 2023, and then review them.
The sanctions package also points out that EU sanctions against Russia do not target in any way agricultural trade between third parties and Russia.
Russia said it hit the Ukrainian command post, and Ukraine said it hit the Russian ammunition depot
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a battle report on the 15th that the Russian army carried out an attack on the Ukrainian command post. The Ukrainian army stated that it had attacked Russian ammunition depots and supply lines.
According to the latest battle report of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian army used precision-guided weapons to destroy the Ukrainian military command post. Local armed forces in Donetsk said on the 14th that they had jointly controlled two settlements near Soledar in the Donetsk region with the Russian army.
The head of Ukraine’s Nikolayev Military Administration said that the Russian army launched at least 10 missiles at two major universities in Nikolayev on the 15th. Some Russian military media claimed that the university hit by the missile was occupied by the Ukrainian National Guard. In addition, some Ukrainian military officials said that the Ukrainian army used long-range weapons provided by the West to attack Russian ammunition depots and supply lines.
U.S. Embassy in Ukraine warns: Evacuate as soon as possible
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a regular video speech on the 14th local time that a missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia had killed 23 people. He stressed that clearing the debris caused by the explosion was still continuing and the number of casualties was likely to increase. Russia has yet to respond to this matter.
The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine issued a security warning on the 14th local time, saying that the security situation across Ukraine continues to be full of unpredictability. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine urges American citizens not to travel to Ukraine, and Americans in Ukraine should immediately use private Transport leaves Ukraine.
The colored sectors were all red at night
Yesterday, the non-ferrous sectors fell collectively. As of the afternoon close, Shanghai nickel fell by 11.85%, ranking first among commodity futures; Shanghai tin fell by 5.75%, a cumulative decline of more than 45% since April this year; Shanghai copper fell by 4.05%, falling by more than 25% in the past month and a half.
However, last night’s trading, the colored sectors were all red. As of the close of the night, the main contracts of Shanghai tin, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel rose by 3.26%, 2.75%, 2.67%, 2.40%, 1.01%, and 0.09% respectively.
Regarding the sharp drop in nickel prices, Shenwan Futures Research Institute said that on the supply side, overseas nickel suppliers are under constant pressure. The fire and wet process projects in Southeast Asia and Indonesia have grown beyond expectations, and the profit window for spot imports of refined nickel has opened. At the same time, 7 The supply of domestic electrolytic nickel is expected to be loose in March, and the explicit inventory of electrolytic nickel is expected to be significantly accumulated.Port volume increased significantly by 14.6%, and the sufficient supply of port goods led to continued decline in prices; third, the destocking of iron ore came to an end, and the pace of stockpiling began again, and supply pressure began to appear; fourth, global commodities were affected by the Federal Reserve’s accelerated interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Affected by the super negative factors of pace, in addition to energy and some niche resource products such as new energy-related metals or minerals, the prices of most industrial raw materials have fallen sharply, and ferrous metal-related products with poor fundamentals have also been greatly affected.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Zhai Hepan said that the current downward trend of iron ore will continue with inertia, especially when the downstream demand for steel is weak, the market has strong negative sentiment, and a certain amount of room is needed for expected conversion and price adjustment. It is worth noting that the rapid adjustment of iron ore prices will have a lighter impact on the real economy than the long-term decline in prices, because only after the price is quickly adjusted in place can the procurement, production and sales of real enterprises find a reasonable price anchor. , arranging production plans and sales strategies on this basis will help restore the vitality and vitality of the industrial chain.
In terms of steel futures, as market panic intensifies in the short term, steel futures have also continued to decline recently. Yesterday, hot coil and rebar both fell by more than 7%. Black Senior Researcher at Dayou Futures Investment Research Center Huang Ke told reporters that from the perspective of supply and demand, although the demand for threads and hot coils fell month-on-month this week, steel mills are losing money and increasing production cuts. Next, inventories continued to decline counter-seasonally and the magnitude of destocking was not small.
Tang Binghua, leader of the black group of Founder Mid-term Futures Research Institute, told reporters that in addition to the expectation that overseas economies will enter a recession, which will continue to affect the commodity market and then be transmitted to the steel market, the supply and demand side of steel futures itself is still weak. Specifically, on the supply side, the current inventory pressure in the midstream of steel (especially rebar) is too great, and production has decreased significantly recently. The inventory has dropped below the level of the same period in the past two years, but steel billet inventory continues to increase. Tangshan steel billet inventory has dropped from 40 in May. Ten thousand tons has increased to the current 1 million tons; in terms of demand, the recent extreme high temperature weather and repeated epidemics in many places have once again dimmed the prospects for the recovery of steel demand. Added to the impact of other negative factors, short-term demand is difficult to significantly improve, and the steel inventory-to-sales ratio It also remains at a historically high level.
“It is expected that July will still be the bottom-seeking stage for steel. Whether there is room for further decline in the future depends on the further trend of raw material prices. At present, iron ore prices are close to the cost of non-mainstream ores, and coke spot prices are at a comprehensive loss. Therefore, black commodities Only coking coal has room to continue to fall, and we need to pay attention to the time when coking coal prices stop falling.” Tang Binghua said that from an industrial and macro perspective, the subsequent rebound in steel prices first requires that its own inventory pressure be significantly alleviated, that is, through the current low level in the off-season. The production continues to reduce inventories; secondly, after entering August, steel consumption can rebound month-on-month with the implementation of infrastructure projects; finally, after the United States raises interest rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points in July as scheduled, inflation can fall. In order to alleviate the overall pressure on the market, domestic policies will see further efforts.
In general, in Huang Ke’s view, the main reason for the black series’ plunge across the board on Friday is not the current supply and demand fundamentals but mainly the macro level. Abroad, market expectations for a substantial 100 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its July interest rate meeting have increased again. The U.S. dollar index has continued to reach new highs in recent days, resulting in collective pressure on commodity prices. Although the supply and demand of black series is domestically dominated, it is not immune to the collective decline of global commodities such as crude oil and copper. Domestically, judging from the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, it is not easy to achieve positive GDP growth in the second quarter. Real estate sales and new construction starts continued to improve month-on-month in June, but the year-on-year gap is obvious, and the corresponding demand for real estate steel will still decline. continued.
“Looking forward, the current rapid decline in black plate prices has released some negative sentiment. However, due to the suppression of overseas macroeconomic negatives and weak actual demand, the black plate will still operate weakly in the short term. If the output of domestic steel companies maintains the current level , while steel demand rebounded seasonally from August to September, inventories dropped to a relatively low level, and the market may rebound by then.” Huang Ke said.
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