On the 19th, the market’s risk aversion temporarily cooled down. After short sellers concentrated on reducing their positions, oversold sectors and varieties rose sharply. The strength of the polyester chain failed to continue on the 19th, with PTA closing at 5,426 yuan, down 0.55%. Staple fiber and ethylene glycol are red.
After experiencing the recent stampede decline, market sentiment has been further released. And as time goes by, the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates beyond expectations decreases, and the fall of the US dollar will help the commodity market rebound. After Biden’s trip to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia made no statement about increasing production, and international oil prices returned to above US$100 in recent months. At the same time, the fragile energy supply in Europe continues to cause market concerns about tight crude oil supply, and market sentiment has improved.
There are also market views that the risk of global economic recession is still rising. In the future, global aggregate demand will fall further. At the same time, supply shortages will gradually improve in the medium to long term. With the Federal Reserve leading global central banks to rapidly tighten policies, financial conditions will no longer be loose, and the medium and long-term trends of commodities will still face pressure.
The strengthening of the cost side did not effectively support the trend of the polyester chain on the 19th. Due to the sharp retracement of cotton futures, the confidence of upstream and downstream polyester with alternative properties has been affected to a certain extent. Looking at PTA fundamentals, although profits are transferred from the PX link to the PTA link, PTA spot processing fees have further increased. PTA has shifted from low construction and low profit status in the early stage to medium and high construction. At the same time, under the circumstances of high-temperature power restrictions and weak terminal demand, there are expectations for further production cuts of polyester, which will continue to exert pressure on the demand side of PTA.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Recently, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption is at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power restriction notices, exacerbating the negative impact on the consumer side. feedback. Recently, some polyester companies and downstream textile printing and dyeing companies in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Haining and other places in Zhejiang have received notices of power cuts. A large polyester bottle flake manufacturer in East China with an annual output of 1.2 million tons has recently reduced production by 30% due to power cuts. Moreover, polyester companies also plan to continue to reduce production by 10% to 15% in the near future, that is, to expand the scale of production reduction on the basis of the original 30% production reduction.
At present, the operating rate of downstream weaving and texturing is only about 50%. If the power supply declines further due to power restrictions, it will be difficult to see a turnaround in upstream polyester sales in the short term, and the pressure of high inventory will still be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, short fiber supply and demand support is also insufficient. Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side.
Due to efficiency issues, the domestic ethylene glycol start-up load has gradually decreased recently, and large equipment such as Hengli and Satellite have announced maintenance plans. The expectations for phased supply and demand improvement have gradually become clear. The EG disk is stronger than PTA and staple fiber. With the decline in domestic ethylene glycol production, the inventory at the main port in East China has also been depleted in three weeks. The inventory at the main port in East China has dropped to around 1.2 million tons.
</p
