Will Russia and Iran strengthen cooperation in the oil field and consider abandoning the US dollar? Will there be new changes in the international oil market?
In this regard, CITIC Futures analyst Yang Jiaming told reporters that the market’s concerns about insufficient crude oil supply stem from low investment growth. Russia’s increase in investment in Iran’s oil industry will significantly increase Iran’s crude oil production expectations. Canceling dollar settlement will further reduce the effect of U.S. sanctions on Iran. U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports will have a greater impact on everything from payment to freight. Most settlement methods are barter. Once settlement in non-U.S. currencies is supported, the U.S.’s sanctions on Iranian crude oil will The effect of sanctions will be greatly reduced, and the amount of Iranian crude oil returning to the market will also increase significantly.
Talking about the trend of oil prices this week, Yang Jiaming believes that in terms of macroeconomics, the U.S. dollar index has weakened and U.S. stocks have continued to rebound. The fall in inflation expectations from the University of Michigan may mean that U.S. inflation has peaked, and the easing of interest rate expectations has once again provided support to the financial market. ; On the fundamental side, the market believes that Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia is less effective. Saudi Arabia has not announced an immediate increase in production. Next month, it will discuss increasing crude oil production under the OPEC+ framework. This is interpreted by the market as a signal that Saudi Arabia will not cooperate with Biden’s increase in production. The United States has allowed Saudi Arabia to coordinate on its own with OPEC+ countries to increase production. The increase in production next month should be greater than before. It may not be appropriate for the market to price in no increase in production.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, said that in recent trading days, the commodity market has entered the recovery stage after a sharp decline. The ups and downs in the trend show that market sentiment is highly unstable. After the sharp decline, the market needs events to stabilize. Against this background, the crude oil sector The overall performance is stronger than other sectors, but large fluctuations are inevitable, posing certain challenges for investors to participate in the market.
According to Yang An, from the perspective of the international market, some characteristics of the market have begun to show obvious differentiation during the crude oil rebound: on the one hand, the oil price rebounded while the monthly spread structure strengthened, showing that the market still maintains strong realistic expectations for the fragile supply side; on the other hand, the market still maintains strong realistic expectations for the fragile supply side; On the one hand, European and American gasoline and diesel did not match the corresponding increase and performed weakly. This caused the European and American market cracking profits to further fall back to the low level since April. To some extent, it can also reflect that under the recent economic downward pressure, European and American market demand has been affected by high oil prices. inhibition. Different signals from the supply and demand ends indicate that the current factors affecting the crude oil market are contradictory. In this case, the differences in focus at different stages will cause relatively complex fluctuations in oil prices.
“The latest API data shows that crude oil and refined oil products continue to accumulate in overall storage, and oil prices have also fallen slightly in the Asian session. For the peak consumption season, if the accumulation of storage continues to accelerate faster than expected, the market balance will further tilt towards the short side; this round of plummeting has been reversed. Regarding the overall situation of commodities, the current relatively strong performance of oil prices is also an objective reflection of the tight supply at this stage. Oil prices have also temporarily maintained a high range, but we have also emphasized that the bull market pattern of crude oil has loosened, and the long and short factors are ebbing and flowing. , the rebound in oil prices has gradually ushered in a resistance area, making it more difficult to continue rising.” Yang An said
Yang Jiaming agreed with this: “Under the resonance of macro fundamentals, the downward trend of oil still holds. The impact of recession on oil demand is gradually emerging, including demand changes, cracking price differences of refined oil, accelerating the balance of supply and demand, and as oil-producing countries continue to increase production. Under such circumstances, once the upward inflection point of inventories is established, the downward pressure from the resonance of macro fundamentals will continue to exert pressure on crude oil.”
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