The adjustment on the 19th combined with the strengthening of oil prices overnight. The polyester chain trend rebounded in early trading on the 20th, but the gains were reduced in the afternoon. PTA closed at 5516 yuan, up 0.15%. Staple fiber and ethylene glycol float green.
After experiencing the recent stampede decline, market sentiment has been further released. And as time goes by, the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates beyond expectations decreases, and the fall of the US dollar will help the commodity market rebound. After Biden’s trip to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia did not express its intention to increase production, and international oil prices returned to above US$100. At the same time, the fragile energy supply in Europe continues to cause market concerns about tight crude oil supply, and market sentiment has improved. Recently, due to the easing of market sentiment, the rebound in oil prices and the attraction of low raw material prices, some speculative demand has appeared in the downstream, and PTA has experienced a restorative rebound.
Recently, some PX devices in Asia have reduced their load. In the third quarter, PX supply and demand pressure was not great. PXN compressed to US$260/ton. In the short term, there is some support around US$250/ton, but there is no obvious driver. Looking at PTA fundamentals, although profits are transferred from the PX link to the PTA link, PTA spot processing fees have further increased. PTA has shifted from low construction and low profit status in the early stage to medium and high construction. At the same time, under the circumstances of high-temperature power restrictions and weak terminal demand, there are expectations for further production cuts of polyester, which will continue to exert pressure on the demand side of PTA.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Recently, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption is at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power restriction notices, exacerbating the negative impact on the consumer side. feedback. Recently, some polyester companies and downstream textile printing and dyeing companies in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Haining and other places in Zhejiang have received notices of power cuts. A large polyester bottle flake manufacturer in East China with an annual output of 1.2 million tons has recently reduced production by 30% due to power cuts. Moreover, polyester companies also plan to continue to reduce production by 10% to 15% in the near future, that is, to expand the scale of production reduction on the basis of the original 30% production reduction.
At present, the operating rate of downstream weaving and texturing is only about 50%. If the power supply declines further due to power restrictions, it will be difficult to see a turnaround in upstream polyester sales in the short term, and the pressure of high inventory will still be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, short fiber supply and demand support is also insufficient. Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side.
GF Futures believes that there is still no substantial improvement on the demand side of PTA. In addition, supply and demand expectations are weak, spot circulation is gradually loosening, and PTA basis has weakened significantly, dragging down market sentiment, and PTA will be under pressure to rebound; but if oil prices do not fall sharply, PTA will decline. Not much space.
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