The recent decline in international oil prices has continued, causing domestic refined oil prices to drop again.
According to calculations by commodity information agency Jin Lianchuang, as of July 22, the eighth working day of this round of price adjustment cycles, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was -5.21%, corresponding to a reduction of 310 yuan/ton in the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel.
Wang Shan, a refined oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that there are only two working days left before the price adjustment, so the “three consecutive reductions” in the retail price of refined oil will be fulfilled as scheduled, and the final reduction may be around 280 yuan/ton.
Since the current pricing cycle, international oil prices have continued to decline, the U.S. dollar has risen to its highest level in recent years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates again, and high inflation may further undermine crude oil demand, which has brought negative pressure to the crude oil market. But overall, the crude oil market is still in a state of supply shortage, and oil prices are still supported by high levels.
Wang Shan said that Saudi Arabia has recently stated that it will increase its oil production by another 1 million barrels per day, but it is not yet known how it will be implemented. This increase in production cannot make up for the current lack of supply in the crude oil market, causing crude oil to rise continuously to offset part of the previous decline.
As of the close of trading on July 23, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 1.71% to close at US$94.70/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 0.64% to close at US$103.2/barrel. .
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic refined oil market has experienced a total of thirteen rounds of price adjustments, showing a trend of “ten rose, three fell, and zero was stranded.” After all increases and decreases are offset, gasoline prices have been raised by a total of 2,040 yuan/ton during the year, and diesel prices have been raised by a total of 1,965 yuan/ton. After this round of price cuts, car owners’ fuel costs will be reduced again, and 95-proof gasoline in some areas will also return to the “8 yuan era.”
The recent continuous price cuts in the refined oil market have led to low downstream stocking intentions and a relatively sluggish market trading atmosphere.
Wang Shan said that the operating rates of mainland refineries and main refineries have increased slightly this cycle compared with the previous cycle, and the supply of resources is relatively sufficient. During the summer vacation, the travel radius of people has increased, which has supported gasoline consumption, but the increase in gasoline consumption has not been as high. expected. Diesel is in the off-season due to seasonal factors, and the main business units are actively chasing volume, so the prices of gasoline and diesel frequently fall.
According to the calculation of the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, the current round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 26.
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