The United States will release an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. According to CCTV reports, on July 26, local time, the White House stated that in order to support supply and stabilize oil prices, the United States will release an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve on the basis of more than 125 million barrels of oil that have been sold. Release 1 million barrels to the market.
From the perspective of crude oil fundamentals, Nanhua Futures Energy Analyst Liu Shunchang told reporters that there are no obvious positive factors for the short-term rise in oil prices. The October Brent oil contract is still oscillating in the range of 94-104. Whether the subsequent oil price can Breaking the range oscillation requires more fundamental information for guidance.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zheng Mengqi, an energy researcher at Hizheng Futures, believes that from the supply side, U.S. crude oil production is currently growing slowly. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on August 3. After Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-July, OPEC+’s production increase may be Somewhat increased. At the same time, Russian crude oil production continues to rebound. The United States will contact its allies in Europe to set a price ceiling for Russian oil, and supply cuts are expected to decline. In addition, Libyan crude oil supply has gradually recovered recently, and Libya has stated that its output will return to 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of this month. From the demand side, external gasoline and diesel cracking have both declined from previous highs. The negative demand feedback caused by the economic recession and high oil prices will inhibit the recovery of demand. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to whether the European natural gas supply problem will cause the energy crisis to recur in the fourth quarter of this year.
“Specifically, first of all, OPEC+ production policy may face major adjustments in August, and Saudi Arabia’s attitude is the key. The current market expects OPEC+ to maintain an increase in production of 648,000 barrels per day per month, but the results are uncertain in the context of increasing political pressure from the United States. Secondly, it is the peak season for transportation and gasoline consumption in the United States, but according to the data released by EIA in the past few weeks, gasoline demand is lower than expected, gasoline inventory accumulation is greater than expected, and gasoline cracking continues to decline. If this situation continues, the crude oil market The pressure on the demand side will further increase. Finally, the transmission chain of high oil prices – high inflation – high interest rates – weakening economic growth expectations is still continuing, which will continue to be negative for crude oil demand. Continue to observe when the negative feedback of high prices on demand will Starting to accelerate.” Liu Shunchang said that overall, in the second half of the year, the crude oil market will face a situation where OPEC+ may further significantly increase production, global macroeconomics and gasoline demand will further weaken, and oil prices will gradually fall.
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