The international oil price is hovering around US$100. After the downward risk on the cost side has been temporarily lifted, the rebound trend of polyester chain PTA and short fiber has become more stable. However, the previous rebound of ethylene glycol was far less than the former two. However, the polyester chain rebounded on the 27th and was reported at 4,275 yuan, up 2.24%.
Recently, due to the easing of market sentiment, the rebound in oil prices and the attraction of low raw material prices, some speculative demand has appeared in the downstream, and PTA has experienced a restorative rebound. Although the current recovery situation after the collapse of the commodity market appears to be relatively chaotic, on the one hand, the market is releasing oversold rebound demand after the sharp decline, and at the same time, it is worried that economic pressure may continue to suppress the market at any time. However, PTA and short fiber continue to rebound, driven not only by the cost side, but also by the slightly improved supply and demand side.
Under the sharp contraction of the supply side, the destocking of ethylene glycol increased from July to August, and the superimposed valuation was low. After the continuous decline, the support below ethylene glycol was relatively strong. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang closed at 4,190 yuan/ton yesterday. As the maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical has been implemented one after another, the domestic MEG operation has dropped below 50%. There are still plans for maintenance of coal chemical equipment in the future, and supply continues to be compressed. In addition, commodity sentiment has improved, and short positions have been reduced, which has stabilized the market. However, the wait-and-see attitude in the downstream has increased after the previous round of inventory replenishment. Recently, the shipment volume of the main port has declined again, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly, failing to continue destocking, which may limit the room for bulls to play.
As the delivery month approaches, the PTA09 contract was in a smooth downward trend in the early part of July, and traders were oversold. However, as delivery approaches, there is not much spot supply, warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the basis remains at a high level of more than 200 yuan/ton. Oversold positions cannot find suitable spot resources, and they have to reduce their positions and leave the market, resulting in a rapid rebound in the market in the near future.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Previously, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption was at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province received notices of power cuts, which intensified the negative feedback on the consumer side. . However, stimulated by low prices, there was a strong atmosphere of bargain hunting at terminals last weekend and this week, polyester production and sales increased, and downstream factories concentrated on stocking up raw materials until the end of the month. The order atmosphere has improved slightly, but not significantly.
Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side.
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