The Xinjiang cotton research trip is over, and we have a basic grasp of Xinjiang cotton production and other related information. Overall, the price of cotton this year is not as good as last year, and the pattern of cotton supply exceeding demand continues.
This survey gave the author a deeper understanding of the cotton market. When cotton prices fell sharply at home and abroad, the cotton industry was indeed severely impacted. The time for the new season cotton to be launched is approaching, and last year’s cotton inventory is still very large. . The companies interviewed in Xinjiang believe that the commercial inventory last year was still about 3 million tons. Regardless of the authenticity of this data, it is an indisputable fact that the cotton inventory is large.
Data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System show that as of July 28, a total of 3.815 million tons of lint cotton had been sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 2.105 million tons, of which Xinjiang sales were 3.315 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.913 million tons. Judging from this data, the amount of unsold cotton last year was relatively large. This figure could be even larger if we include cotton purchased by traders but not yet sold.
What will be the cotton output this year? According to research by reporters from China Cotton Network, Xinjiang’s cotton output may increase year-on-year this year. The specific increase needs to be verified by final actual production data. Local professional cotton growers said: “The national cotton market monitoring system predicted Xinjiang’s cotton output in June to be 5.525 million tons, but according to the current cotton growth situation, this year’s output is expected to be close to 6 million tons.” If this data is true, this year’s cotton output The increase in output is indeed not small. Of course, the authenticity of the data needs to be verified before the new flowers are launched on the market, but it reflects from the side that the growth of cotton this year is indeed very good.
With a large surplus of cotton stocks last year, the production of new flowers has increased again this year, which is self-evident to the pressure on the cotton market. The person in charge of Xinjiang ginning enterprises said that the current cotton sales are slow and the enthusiasm for downstream purchasing is very low. Especially when the cotton price fluctuates sharply, many enterprises are afraid of cotton and are very worried that the price will drop sharply just after purchasing cotton. , resulting in corporate losses. At present, the price of cotton has dropped to around the 10,000 mark. Ginning companies and textile companies hope that cotton prices can be stabilized, and only in this way can consumption slowly recover.
The pattern of supply exceeding demand in the cotton market will continue in the new season. When will cotton prices stabilize? How long will the cold winter of the cotton spinning industry last? This is a practical issue that enterprises are very concerned about right now.
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