International oil prices have continued to fall from highs, and domestic refined oil prices have also continued to fall.
International oil prices fall below 90 US dollars mark
Soaring inflation and rising interest rates, as well as weak July PMI data from the world’s major economies, have raised concerns about an economic recession. Under recessionary trading, bears have begun to dominate the commodity market, and the outlook for fuel demand is bleak.
Since August, international crude oil futures have fallen by more than 6%. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have both fallen back to the levels before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. U.S. WTI crude oil has even fallen below the $90 mark, hitting a new low in five months. As oil prices continue to fall, global inflation expectations have eased.
However, signs of tight supply have limited the pace of oil price decline, and demand concerns have given OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) some breathing space. On August 3, OPEC+ increased production by a small token amount, highlighting the limited ability of the market to cope with further supply shortages.
Domestic refined oil prices will face “four consecutive declines”
According to calculations by commodity information agency Jin Lianchuang, as of August 8, the ninth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was -1.64%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price limit should be reduced by 110 yuan/ Ton.
The crude oil change rate monitored by Zhuochuang Information is -1.62%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to drop by 80 yuan/ton. The corresponding price of No. 92 gasoline will be reduced by 0.06 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.07 yuan/liter.
This round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 9. Now there is only one working day left before the price adjustment window opens. This round of refined oil retail price limit adjustment will most likely be lowered.
Xu Na, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that since the current pricing cycle, international oil prices have risen and fallen alternately, but the price bottom has continued to move downwards. In the past week, the net decline in European and American crude oil futures prices has reached about 10%. Market concerns about slowing economic growth and the decline in manufacturing indexes of major global economies have become the main factors for lower oil prices. WTI crude oil futures closed below US$90 per barrel for the first time since February 10.
Affected by this, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil turned from positive to negative, and continued to deepen in the negative range, and the price of refined oil was eventually reduced.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil products have experienced a total of fourteen price adjustments, showing a pattern of “ten rises, four falls, and zero strandings.” Recently, there has been a “three consecutive declines”. During the “three consecutive declines”, the retail price limit of gasoline has been reduced by a total of 980 yuan/ton, and the retail price limit of diesel has been reduced by a total of 945 yuan/ton.
At present, after the gains and losses have been balanced, compared with the beginning of the year, it costs about 73 yuan more to fill a 50-liter tank.
If this round of price reductions in refined oil products is finally realized, domestic refined oil prices will usher in the first “four consecutive declines” this year. This will also be the first “four consecutive declines” in refined oil prices since 2019.
Xu Na said that if calculated according to the current reduction range of 80 yuan/ton, the cumulative price reduction of gasoline and diesel during the “four consecutive declines” period is 1,060 yuan/ton and 1,025 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase. No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel prices were reduced by 0.83 yuan/liter, 0.88 yuan/liter and 0.87 yuan/liter respectively.
Institutional analysts said that in the future, the crude oil market is still in the expectation of both economic and demand decline, and the later trend will be under greater pressure. It is expected that the new round of change rate may still run in a negative range, and it is difficult to find support from short-term news. It is expected that There may still be room for a correction in wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in the short term.
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