International oil prices have fallen significantly recently, and domestic crude oil prices have been relatively strong, with the overall trend showing a range-bound oscillation.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.056 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ended August 12. It is expected to decrease by 275,000 barrels and the previous value increased by 5.457 million barrels; U.S. strategic oil Reserve inventories decreased by 3.402 million barrels, compared with the previous decrease of 5.297 million barrels. After the EIA data was released, international oil prices fell after rising. As of the close of the day, the September contract of WTI crude oil futures rose by US$1.58/barrel to close at US$88.11/barrel, an increase of 1.83%; the October contract of Brent crude oil futures rose by US$1.31/barrel and closed at US$93.65/barrel, an increase of 1.83%. is 1.42%.
“China’s crude oil imports fell sharply from July to August, and near-shore crude oil inventories are at historically low levels as refiners reduced inventories and domestic fuel demand recovered slower than expected. In early August, Saudi Aramco proactively increased its sales to Asia. The price of light crude oil has reached a record level, which objectively caused tight supply in the oil market in the Far East, and the trend of internal crude oil is stronger than that of the external market.” An Ran, an analyst at Hua’an Futures, said.
In the international market, yesterday, the price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil futures narrowed to US$5.83/barrel, the smallest since July 14.
It is understood that the price difference between Brent and WTI, also known as the transatlantic price difference, reflects the flow of crude oil trade between Europe and North America. Since freight rates are relatively stable, the ultra-high price difference will open a profit window for Gulf of Mexico crude oil to be transported to Europe.
As Europe’s imports of U.S. crude oil have risen sharply, the price difference between Brent and WTI has narrowed recently.
“The previous widening of price differences was mainly due to the greater impact of the U.S. reserve selling on the supply side, while the reserve selling by non-U.S. countries in the IEA was smaller than that of the United States. The negative feedback on U.S. gasoline demand on the demand side was obvious, which has affected the operating rate of U.S. refineries. .” Zhang Zhengze, analyst at Guohai Liangshi Futures, said that the price difference has narrowed recently. From the perspective of the U.S. market, supply and demand pressures have improved month-on-month. On the supply side, the U.S. reserve dumping will end in October, and supply pressure has decreased. On the demand side, the poor performance of gasoline during the peak season is partly due to the impact of the epidemic. Recently, the number of new cases in the United States has reached an inflection point. Some of the demand previously affected by the epidemic has also been released. The apparent demand for gasoline, which is still at the end of the peak season, has recovered. .
“The current trading logic of the crude oil market is a trade-off between the risk premium brought about by Russia’s possible reduction in energy supply and the slowdown in global economic growth. The progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations will also have a certain interference on oil prices.” Deputy Director of Nanhua Futures Consulting Services Department Manager Gu Shuangfei said.
At present, there are still many disturbance factors on the supply side of the international oil market. The idle production capacity of major oil-producing countries is still limited, and shale oil production is also weak. However, Europe’s energy replenishment plan for autumn and winter is progressing smoothly, and sanctions against Russian oil are progressing smoothly. At the same time, Russian crude oil exports fell sharply to the lowest level since March, indicating that demand is the core factor currently suppressing oil price trends.
“The current global economy is gradually entering recession, and central banks of various countries are forced to significantly tighten monetary policies to combat inflation. From the high level of refined oil crack spreads to the accumulation of EIA inventories, to the sharp narrowing of monthly spreads in recent months, all reflect the economic The downward trend will have a suppressive effect on oil market demand,” Enron said.
Zhang Zhengze believes that in the medium and long term, the logic that dominates the core trend of the crude oil market lies in when the demand for diesel, which represents industrial demand on the demand side, weakens. “It can be observed and tracked through two indicators: whether the diesel cracking spread and the unilateral price of crude oil are declining simultaneously, and whether there is a trend increase in super-seasonal diesel stocks.”
In Gu Shuangfei’s view, the core that affects the long-term trend of oil prices is the issue of pricing power, and the core behind it is whether the increase in U.S. shale oil exceeds the growth in global crude oil demand. “Judging from the current market environment, U.S. shale oil production continues to grow, but its sustainability is still questionable. Market pricing power is still in the hands of OPEC, and global spare capacity is still insufficient. This is the core factor supporting oil prices. Due to recent OPEC intentions Adjusting the flow of crude oil trade and rebalancing global crude oil supply and demand have also contributed to this round of decline in oil prices. “The Iranian nuclear negotiations are currently advancing, and if an agreement is reached, it will push oil prices down further. ”
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