In the fourth quarter, terminal beverage companies were not very enthusiastic about enquiries, and the demand side was weak. The market for polyester bottle flakes was like a train heading to winter, drifting away. So, what will be the trend of the market for polyester bottle flakes next?
The short-term cost support is acceptable
Recently, although the PTA plant’s early shutdown and maintenance equipment has returned to normal, and the supply side is expected to increase, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, crude oil closed high again, and the PTA futures spot market rose sharply. Under the impact of bulls in the futures market, the spot market transactions were acceptable. In the short term, the cost support can be maintained, but in the long term, during the off-season of the industry, the trend of raw material PTA will fluctuate and weaken in the later period, and the cost support will weaken accordingly.
The supply side is relatively stable
In the first three quarters of 2016, domestic polyester bottle flake factories had no new production capacity, and the overall supply and demand structure of domestic polyester bottle flakes was relatively good. Affected by this, factory profits also saw a large commission, and inventory fell significantly compared with last year. Entering the fourth quarter, Zhuhai China Resources will add a new production capacity of 300,000 tons/year of polyester bottle flakes. It is expected to be around the end of October. There is no clear guidance from other factories. Due to seasonal effects, the fourth quarter is also the period of maintenance of traditional bottle flake factories. It is expected that the supply situation may fluctuate slightly at this time.
Weak demand performance
Compared with last year, the annual export performance of polyester bottle flakes in the first three quarters of this year was good. As of August, the total export volume of polyester bottle flakes was 1.7946 million tons. Bottle chip inventory consumption is mainly concentrated in July and August. Starting from September, the purchase volume and frequency of terminal beverage manufacturers have reduced. During the off-season of the industry, the overall market transaction situation has gradually declined, and the demand side is difficult to provide positive support.
Overall, the fourth quarter has entered the off-season for the polyester bottle flake industry. In the short term, the raw material market support is acceptable, but under the influence of the off-season, the trend will eventually be weak; for the export of polyester bottle flakes, transportation costs and Affected by many factors such as low-price competition, it is difficult to see significant growth. The domestic terminal market has entered the off-season of demand. Downstream bottle flake factories are not very enthusiastic about enquiries, and the demand side continues to be weak. Affected by this, the author predicts that the fourth quarter will be concentrated. The market for ester bottle tablets will mostly fluctuate and be weak, reminding industry insiders that they still need to be cautious in trading.
